Table 1. Comparison of four Bayesian models with and without random effects and covariates (M1 with no random effects or environmental covariates; M2: with random effects but no environmental covariates; M3: with environmental covariates but no random effects; M4 with random effects and environmental covariates (Rainfall, TSI and EVI).

	Model	DIC	PD	Mlik(Integration)	Variance ofpredictivedistribution	Std error ofpredictivedistribution	Mean Error	R2
P. falciparum	M1	3670.00	86.80	−1824.57	0.002	1.026	-	-
	M2	3596.90	95.60	−1824.94	0.005	1.042	-	-
	M3	3599.48	90.64	−1821.78	0.002	1.026	-	-
	M4	3570.76	96.85	−1804.94	0.002	1.022	−0.442	0.619
P. vivax	M1	20933.49	203.48	−10571.74	0.001	1.054	-	-
	M2	20781.31	301.97	−10538.10	0.001	1.049	-	-
	M3	20935.46	206.49	−10593.93	0.001	1.052	-	-
	M4	20780.64	301.46	−10554.87	0.001	1.047	−0.308	0.629

DIC: Deviance information Criterion, P_D: Effective number of parameters, Mlik: Maximum likelihood estimate.