Figure 1.

Schematic representation model. ASA, aspirin CRNM, clinically relevant non-major; ICH, intracranial haemorrhages; NVAF, non-valvular atrial fibrillation; AC, anticoagulant; IS, ischaemic stroke; HS, haemorrhagic stroke. ‘M’ represents a Markov process with 11 health states that are identical for each of the treatment options. All patients remain in the ‘NVAF’ state until one of stroke, bleed, SE, MI, treatment discontinuation, or death occurs. The transition probabilities of these events depend on the treatment. For patients on second-line aspirin ‘NVAF subsequent ASA’ the events are identical however patients cannot experience any further discontinuation. Triangles indicate which health state the patient enters after an event. Health states coloured in blue are permanent health states, with the remainder being transient health states occurring for a maximum period of 6 weeks before returning to the prior or subsequent health state.