Table 3. Multinomial logit results predicting the pathways to adulthood (age 15-22) followed by young men in Cape Town, South Africa (Relative risk ratios presented, omitted category for dependent variable=other pathways¹).

	Model 1			Model 2			Model 3
	Secondary through early 20s	Early school departure to underempl.	Fatherhood	Secondary through early 20s	Early school departure to underempl.	Fatherhood	Secondary through early 20s	Early school departure	Fatherhood
Number of transitions in parental co-residence (birth to 14)
Total transitions in co-residence w/ mother	0.66 (0.17)	1.25 (0.33)	0.93 (0.29)
Total transitions in co-residence w/ father	1.67 * (0.43)	1.11 (0.30)	1.69 (0.54)
Mother transitions (ref group: none)
1 change in co-residence w/ mother				0.72 (0.31)	1.85 (0.98)	1.78 (0.92)
2+ changes in co-residence w/ mother				0.39 † (0.21)	1.31 (0.73)	0.69 (0.53)
Father transitions (ref group: none)
1 change in co-residence w/ father				3.14 ** (1.15)	1.53 (0.68)	2.25 * (0.93)
2+ changes in co-residence w/ father				1.11 (0.63)	0.85 (0.48)	2.12 (1.75)
Household structure in first year (ref group: both parents)
Lived with mother, no father	0.68 (0.25)	1.35 (0.55)	0.78 (0.31)	0.99 (0.38)	1.62 (0.76)	0.92 (0.39)
Other household structure	0.56 (0.24)	0.89 (0.43)	0.65 (0.36)	0.62 (0.26)	0.96 (0.45)	0.70 (0.36)
Household structure at age 14 (ref group: both parents)
Lived with mother, no father	2.35 * (0.87)	1.10 (0.47)	2.06 (0.95)	1.67 (0.63)	0.91 (0.42)	1.71 (0.77)
Lived with grandparents, no parents	4.02 ** (2.13)	1.37 (0.82)	2.24 (1.37)	2.80 † (1.56)	0.95 (0.65)	1.34 (0.85)
Other household structure	3.59 * (2.03)	1.72 (1.00)	2.20 (1.40)	2.89 † (1.64)	1.20 (0.76)	1.26 (0.84)
Household structure in first year and stability in parental co-residence through 14 (ref group: both parents in first year, stable)
Mother and not father in first year, stable							2.56 * (0.96)	1.83 (0.73)	1.54 (0.71)
Other family structure in first year, stable							0.93 (0.54)	0.98 (0.71)	1.15 (0.72)
Both parents in first year, mother change							1.30 (0.82)	3.19 † (1.96)	1.33 (0.87)
Both parents in first year, father change							4.33 ** (1.90)	1.01 (0.51)	3.37 ** (1.49)
Mother and not father in first year, mother change							0.95 (0.40)	1.93 (0.88)	1.64 (0.85)
Mother and not father in first year, father change							1.01 (0.55)	1.06 (0.65)	1.50 (1.10)
Other household structure in first year, mother change							0.55 (0.37)	0.68 (0.54)	0.62 (0.56)
Other household structure in first year, father change							5.72 * (4.42)	5.04 (5.06)	3.84 (3.91)
Other socio-demographic controls
Age at time of interview (2002)	0.95 (0.09)	1.14 (0.11)	1.23 * (0.13)	0.96 (0.09)	1.14 (0.11)	1.24 * (0.13)	0.93 (0.09)	1.13 (0.11)	1.24 * (0.13)
Coloured	0.02 *** (0.01)	0.32 *** (0.09)	0.35 ** (0.11)	0.02 *** (0.01)	0.32 *** (0.09)	0.37 ** (0.12)	0.02 *** (0.01)	0.30 *** (0.08)	0.34 *** (0.11)
Comfortable economic situation as child	0.43 ** (0.12)	0.46 ** (0.13)	0.49 * (0.15)	0.43 ** (0.12)	0.47 ** (0.13)	0.50 * (0.15)	0.45 ** (0.13)	0.48 ** (0.13)	0.50 * (0.15)
Mother’s completed education secondary plus	0.92 (0.29)	0.44 ** (0.13)	0.41 ** (0.13)	0.95 (0.30)	0.44 ** (0.13)	0.40 ** (0.12)	0.90 (0.28)	0.43 ** (0.13)	0.44 ** (0.13)
Father’s completed education secondary plus	0.55 † (0.18)	0.75 (0.25)	0.56 (0.22)	0.55 † (0.19)	0.76 (0.25)	0.57 (0.22)	0.51 * (0.17)	0.76 (0.25)	0.56 (0.22)
Orphaned before age 15	0.64 (0.27)	0.85 (0.34)	0.50 (0.21)	0.61 (0.26)	0.80 (0.33)	0.47 † (0.21)	0.74 (0.30)	0.84 (0.33)	0.53 (0.22)
N	707			707			710
Log-likelihood	−672.29			−667.79			−669.84

Notes:

^†p<.1;

^*p<.05;

^**p< .01;

^***p<.001

¹Reference pathw ays are tertiary school and secondary to work.

Also included in the regressions are dummy variables to indicate missing values on mothers’ and fathers’ education. Regressions use sample weights to adjust for sample design and for individual non-response in waves 2, 3, and 4. Sample is limited to African and Coloured respondents only. Results adjust for clustering of young men in 657 households.