Table 1.

Parameters and sources of data employed in the modular framework for the ASF risk assessment

Pathway	Parameter	Definition	Source
L.PIGS &L.PROD	Po	Probability of infection in the country of origin (country o)	Beta(α1, α2)
			α1 = X + 1; α2 = M-(X + 1)
			X:number of outbreaks by month[26]
			M: number of months considered
	Ou	Number of undetected outbreaks before official notification in country o	[9]
	To	Average herd size in country o	To = No/So
	No	Pig population in country o	[9,27]
	So	Pig establishments in country o	[27,28]
	Hp	Intra-herd prevalence	[29,30]
	Ps	Probability of an ASF-infected pig surviving infection	[31]
L.PIGS	P1s	Probability of selecting an ASF-infected pig from country o in month m	Beta (α1, α2) α1 = NI + 1; α2 = No-(NI + 1) NI = Po x Ou x To x Hp;
	Pt	Probability of survival during transportation	[32]
	P2S	Probability of a pig surviving	P2S = Ps*Pt
	Snodm	Imports of live swine (number of pigs) from country of origin (o) to the EU destination country (d) in month m (in the last 5 years). In order to transform Eurostat imports data (in 100 kg) into number of pigs, a standard weight of 100 kg was assumed per pig.	[25]
			Normal (μ, σ)
	Spodm	Probability of an ASF infected animal from country o entering country d in month (m)	Binomial (n, p)
			n = Snodm
			p = P1S x P2S
	PfS	Probability of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one of country of origin (o) in month m by legal imports of live pigs	$$\mathit{Pfs}=1-{\displaystyle \prod _{\mathit{odm}}\left(1-\mathit{s}{\mathit{p}}_{\mathit{odm}}\right)}$$
	Pm	Probability of a pig being grown for meat production	Normal(Mo/No)
L. PRODS	Mo	Number of slaughtered pigs in countries o	[27] (2005/2009)
	PC	kg of meat obtained per slaughtered pig (per 100 kg)	[27] (2000-2009)
	Co	Annual pig meat production per country (100 kg)	[27] (2005-2008)
	P1P	Probability of selecting infected ASFV pig meat from country o in month m	P1p: Mi / (Co/12),
			Mi: Po*Ou*To*Hp*Ps*Pm*PC
	P2P	Probability of meat belonging to one of the different types of products considered	[25] (2008-2009)
	P3P	Probability of ASF virus survival in each meat product type during transport.	[33,34]
	pnodm	Imports of each pig meat product type (100 kg weight) from country “o” to EU country “d” in month “m”	[25] (2005-2009)
	Ppodm	Probabilities of ASF infected pig products of different types (a-c) from country o entering country d in month m	Binomial (n, p)
			n = pnodm
			p = P1p* P2p * P3p
	Pfp	Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country (o) in month m by legal imports of each pig products type (a-c).	$$\mathit{Pfp}=1-{\displaystyle \prod _{\mathit{odm}}\left(1-\mathit{P}{\mathit{p}}_{\mathit{odm}}\right)}$$
	PTP	Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country o in month m by legal imports of any pig product type.	$$\mathit{PTp}=1-{\displaystyle \prod _{\mathit{i}=\mathit{a}}^{\mathit{c}}\left(1-\mathit{P}{\mathit{f}}_{\mathit{p}}\right)}$$
ILLEGAL	P1I	Probability of release through illegal importation for personal consumption	Sum of weighted risk scores for P3, P4 and P5
	P3I	Outbound tourism to ASF-affected countries. Holiday or business trips of 1 night or more from EC27 to Africa and Russia, arrivals of non resident visitors at national borders of Georgia	[25], Georgian National Tourism Agency
	P4I	Inbound tourism from ASF-affected countries: Arrivals to EU27 of non residents from Africa and Russia staying in hotels, etc.	[25]
	P5 I	Residents (citizens )from ASF-affected countries	[25]
	P2 I	Probability of release through illegal importation for commercial purposes	Sum of weighted risk scores for P5, P6 and P7
	P6I	Price of pork. 2010 annual average price of Grade E carcasses (55-59% lean meat percentage) in euros per 100 kg	European community
	P7I	Geographic position	Sum of weighted risk scores (P8,P9,P10)
	P8I	Number of ports and airports	World Port Index 2009; [25]
	P9I	Distance in km to nearest ASF-affected country (from country border to border of nearest ASF-affected country)	Shapefile of national boundaries
	P10I	Number of international terrestrial border points with non EU member states	FAO Geonetwork: shapefiles of railways, roads and waterways of the World VMAP)
TAF	P1t	Number of potential ASF-contaminated returning trucks. Number of live pigs exported from EU to ASF-affected countries by road	[25] (Nov. 2007-2009)- (ComExt)
	P2t	Number of ways (and consequently, facility) of a truck to arrive by road in an EU country from non EU countries. Number of roads crossing EU national boundaries with non EU states	FAO Geonetwork. Roads of the World
	P3t	Probability of returning trucks not being properly disinfected	[35]
	P4t	Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cargo ships. Inward number of cargo ships from ASF-infected countries to EU ports	[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9]
	P5t	Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by passenger ships (excluding cruises). Inward number of passenger ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU	[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9]
	P6t	Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by Short sea shipping (SSS) movements. Ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU	[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); GIS
	P7t	Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cruises. Proportion of cruise ships from ASF-affected areas per country	$$\mathit{P}7\mathrm{t}=\frac{\mathrm{CAi}}{\left[\mathrm{Cp}/\mathrm{p}\right]}$$
	CA	Number of cruise ships arriving at EU ports after one stop in ASF-infected areas	Travelocity. http://travel.travelocity.com
	Cp	Number of cruise passengers arriving at EU ports (Cp)	[25] (ComExt)
	p	Average number of passengers per cruise ship	Truecruises. http://www.truecruise.com/cruise-ship-database.aspx
	P8t	Potential contaminated waste introduced by international passenger flights. Commercial passenger flights from ASF-infected countries to EU airports	[25,9]
WB	P1W	Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected wild boar	P1w = P4w*P5 w
	P2W	Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected domestic pigs	P2 w = P6 w *P7 w
	P3W	Probability of infected wild boar crossing national border	P3a w: P8 w *P9 w P3b w: P9 w *P10 w
	P4W	Wild boar outbreak density in countries o	[9] 2007-2012
	P5W	Wild boar population density in countries o	[36-38]
	P6W	Density of domestic pig outbreaks in countries o	[9] 2007-2012
	P7W	Domestic pig population density in countries o	[36]
	P8W	Surface of shared wild boar suitable habitat along national borders	Corine land cover
	P9W	Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (wild boar)	[9] 2007-2012
	P10W	Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (domestic pig)	[9] 2007-2012

L.PIGS (Legal imports of pigs), L.PROD (Legal imports of products), ILLEGAL (Illegal imports), TAF (Transport associated fomites) and WB (wild boar).