Multinomial model of event-based PM. C1 = probability of detecting a color match; C2 = probability of detecting that a color does not match; P = probability of engaging preparatory attentional processes; M = probability of discriminating between targets and non-targets (i.e. remembering when, the retrospective recognition component); g = probability of guessing that a word is a target; c = probability of guessing that a color matches. Adapted from “A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory” by R. E. Smith and U. J. Bayen, 2004, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, p. 758.