. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Jul 29.

Published in final edited form as: Lancet Glob Health. 2013 Dec 10;2(1):23–34. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70172-4

Table 1.

Epidemiological models included in analysis and strategies simulated

Model name [Key reference(s)]	Setting	Model Type^a	Age- structured	Heterogeneous sexual risk in general pop.^b	Key populations included in model^c	Notes^d
Goals⁴¹	South Africa; Zambia	Determ.	Yes	Yes	FSW, MSM	includes TB disease
STDSIM⁴²	South Africa	Microsim.	Yes	Yes	FSW
EMOD⁴³	South Africa; Zambia	Microsim.	Yes	Yes
BBH³⁷	South Africa	Determ.	No	No	FSW, MSM
PopART^e	South Africa; Zambia	Determ.	No	Yes		includes TB disease
Synthesis⁴⁴	South Africa	Microsim.	Yes	Yes		incl. WHO stage IV
Menzies⁴⁵	South Africa	Determ.	No	No		includes TB disease, no CD4 ≤500
Macha⁴⁶	Zambia	Determ.	No	No
Pruddell^e	Bangalore, India	Determ.	No	N/A	FSW, MSM	no CD4 ≤500
Mishra⁴⁷	Belgaum, India^f	Determ.	No	No	FSW	no CD4 ≤500
IDU-Manipur⁴⁸	Churachandpur, India	Determ.	No	N/A	PWID, former-PWID	includes HCV transmission, no CD4 ≤500
Prevtool⁴⁹	Vietnam	Determ.	No	No	FSW, MSM, PWID

Determ. = deterministic compartment model structure; Microsim. = Individual-based microsimulation model.

All models for South Africa and Zambia simulate entire adult population (age 15+ years). Mishra model for Belgaum simulates the general adult population (age 15+ years) of Belgaum municipality. Pruddell simulates only subpopulations consisting of current and former FSW, MSM, and clients of FSW, and IDU-Manipur simulates current and former male PWID and their heterosexual partners. Prevtool model for Vietnam simulates the general adult population aged 15–49 years.

Abbreviations: FSW = female sex workers; MSM = men who have sex with men; PWID = people who inject drugs. Concentrated epidemic models (India, Vietnam) consider expanded access to ART among these populations.

All models simulate ART eligibility for CD4 ≤350 cells/µL, and eligibility for all HIV-positive adults. Most models simulate ART eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL. Menzies, Pruddell, Mishra, and IDU-Manipur do not consider eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL. Synthesis model also simulates ART eligibility for patients with a WHO Stage IV diagnosis.

All models except for Pruddell and IDU-Manipur simulate the entire adult (age 15+) general population in the defined setting.

Description of model available online at http://www.hivmodelling.org.

Mishra contributes a second baseline simulation assuming that increases in condom usage and ART access for FSW resulting from the successful Avahan intervention program¹⁸ had not occurred and ART access for HIV-positive individuals (including FSW) remained poor, resulting in higher HIV incidence. This is referred to as ‘Mishra – no FSW intervention’.