Table 1.
HRs and 95% CIs for incident type 2 diabetes according to updated 4-year changes in coffee and tea intake
| Changes in frequency of coffee and tea consumption
| ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COFFEE
| ||||||
| Moderate to large decrease (>1 cup/day) | Small to moderate decrease (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | No change (±1 cup/week)a | Small to moderate increase (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | Moderate to large increase (>1 cup/day) | HR per 1 serving | |
|
HPFS
| ||||||
| n | 4318 | 3451 | 13833 | 3050 | 3107 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 317/61343 | 199/49540 | 818/198710 | 182/44571 | 188/45520 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.22 (1.05, 1.43) | 0.88 (0.75, 1.04) | 1.00 | 0.92 (0.78, 1.09) | 0.97 (0.82, 1.14) | 0.94 (0.90, 0.99) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.22 (1.05, 1.42) | 0.91 (0.77, 1.07) | 1.00 | 0.92 (0.78, 1.10) | 0.93 (0.79, 1.10) | 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS
| ||||||
| n | 9372 | 6343 | 23224 | 4545 | 4980 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 654/137935 | 449/93692 | 1745/343597 | 343/67890 | 291/74601 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.17 (1.06, 1.30) | 0.98 (0.88, 1.09 | 1.00 | 1.04 (0.92, 1.16) | 0.84 (0.74, 0.96) | 0.94 (0.91, 0.97) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.17 (1.05, 1.29) | 0.99 (0.89, 1.11) | 1.00 | 1.05 (0.94, 1.18) | 0.86 (0.76, 0.98) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.98) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS II
| ||||||
| n | 7132 | 5214 | 25536 | 4786 | 4841 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 278/80074 | 236/59562 | 1201/293809 | 195/55872 | 173/56604 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.16 (0.99, 1.36) | 0.96 (0.82, 1.13) | 1.00 | 0.86 (0.73, 1.01) | 0.86 (0.73, 1.02) | 0.94 (0.90, 0.99) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.10 (0.94, 1.30) | 0.94 (0.80, 1.11) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.76, 1.06) | 0.90 (0.76, 1.07) | 0.97 (0.92, 1.01) |
|
| ||||||
|
Pooledd
| ||||||
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.18 (1.10, 1.28) | 0.95 (0.88, 1.03) | 1.00 | 0.95 (0.84, 1.06) | 0.88 (0.81, 0.96) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.17 (1.08, 1.26) | 0.96 (0.89, 1.04) | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.87, 1.08) | 0.89 (0.82, 0.97) | 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) |
|
| ||||||
|
TEA
| ||||||
| Moderate to large decrease (>1 cup/day) | Small to moderate decrease (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | No change (±1 cup/week)a | Small to moderate increase (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | Moderate to large increase (>1 cup/day) | HR per 1 serving | |
|
| ||||||
|
HPFS
| ||||||
| n | 1375 | 3510 | 18735 | 3016 | 1123 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 84/19634 | 229/50421 | 1125/269457 | 187/43859 | 79/16313 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.00 (0.78, 1.30) | 1.10 (0.91, 1.33) | 1.00 | 1.03 (0.88, 1.21) | 1.20 (0.94, 1.53) | 1.02 (0.95, 1.10) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 0.94 (0.73, 1.22) | 1.10 (0.91, 1.32) | 1.00 | 1.03 (0.88, 1.21) | 1.15 (0.90, 1.46) | 1.02 (0.95, 1.10) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS
| ||||||
| n | 3467 | 7159 | 29011 | 5991 | 2836 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 256/51164 | 548/105883 | 2076/429649 | 395/88888 | 207/42131 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.06 (0.90, 1.25) | 1.04 (0.92, 1.17) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.81, 1.01) | 1.06 (0.91, 1.23) | 0.98 (0.94, 1.02) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.02 (0.87, 1.20) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.12) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.80, 1.00) | 1.01 (0.87, 1.18) | 0.98 (0.94, 1.02) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS II
| ||||||
| n | 4530 | 8953 | 23211 | 7440 | 3376 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 223/51672 | 432/102393 | 957/266493 | 325/86328 | 146/39034 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.18 (0.96, 1.44) | 1.19 (1.03, 1.37) | 1.00 | 1.05 (0.92, 1.20) | 0.95 (0.79, 1.15) | 0.96 (0.91, 1.00) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.12 (0.92, 1.37) | 1.18 (1.02, 1.36) | 1.00 | 1.05 (0.92, 1.20) | 0.94 (0.78, 1.13) | 0.96 (0.92, 1.00) |
|
| ||||||
|
Pooledd
| ||||||
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.08 (0.97, 1.22) | 1.10 (1.01, 1.19) | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.89, 1.09) | 1.05 (0.94, 1.17) | 0.98 (0.95, 1.01) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.03 (0.92, 1.16) | 1.08 (0.97, 1.20) | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.88, 1.09) | 1.01 (0.91, 1.12) | 0.98 (0.95, 1.01) |
Reference category
Adjusted for age, family history of diabetes (yes/no), race (white/non-white), postmenopausal hormone use (premenopausal, postmenopausal current user, postmenopausal never/past user, missing), physical exam in the previous cycle (yes/no), change in smoking status (never to never, never to current, current to current, current to past, past to current, past to past) baseline alcohol intake (0, 0.1-4.9, 5-9.9, 10-14.9, ≥15 g/d), change in alcohol intake (quintiles), baseline physical activity (<3, 3-8.9, 9-17.9, 18-26.9, ≥27 METS/week), change in physical activity (quintiles), history of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia (yes/no), baseline and 4-year changes in beverage intake (quantiles; beverages include sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, punch, milk, coffee/tea depending on the model), baseline alternate healthy eating index score, and change in alternate healthy eating index score.
Multivariable model 1 + baseline BMI (<21, 21-22.9, 23-24.9, 25-26.9, 27-29.9, 30-34.9, 35-39.9, ≥40 kg/m2) and change in body weight (quintiles).
The results across the 3 cohorts were pooled using an inverse variance-weighted, random-effects meta-analysis.