Table 2.
HRs and 95% CIs for incident type 2 diabetes according to updated 4-year changes in caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee intake
| Changes in frequency of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee consumption
| ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAFFEINATED COFFEE
| ||||||
| Moderate to large decrease (>1 cup/day) | Small to moderate decrease (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | No change (±1 cup/week)a | Small to moderate increase (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | Moderate to large increase (>1 cup/day) | HR per 1 serving | |
|
HPFS
| ||||||
| n | 3515 | 2141 | 17118 | 2191 | 2794 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 260/50252 | 141/30340 | 1005/246171 | 138/31963 | 160/40959 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.29 (1.09, 1.54) | 1.05 (0.85, 1.30) | 1.00 | 1.05 (0.86, 1.26) | 0.97 (0.81, 1.16) | 0.93 (0.89, 0.98) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.28 (1.08, 1.53) | 1.01 (0.82, 1.26) | 1.00 | 1.02 (0.84, 1.23) | 0.91 (0.76, 1.10) | 0.92 (0.88, 0.97) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS
| ||||||
| n | 7600 | 3394 | 28872 | 2901 | 4596 | |
| Cases/Person, years | 512/112119 | 276/49568 | 2190/443893 | 261/43205 | 243/68931 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.18 (1.05, 1.33) | 1.02 (0.88, 1.18) | 1.00 | 1.17 (1.02, 1.34) | 0.81 (0.70, 0.93) | 0.94 (0.91, 0.98) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.18 (1.04, 1.33) | 0.99 (0.85, 1.14) | 1.00 | 1.14 (1.00, 1.31) | 0.81 (0.70, 0.93) | 0.95 (0.91, 0.98) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS II
| ||||||
| n | 6421 | 3196 | 29873 | 3425 | 4595 | |
| Cases/Person, years | 243/72453 | 180/35709 | 1342/344074 | 155/39889 | 163/53795 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.21 (1.02, 1.44) | 1.02 (0.84, 1.23) | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.85, 1.21) | 0.91 (0.76, 1.09) | 0.95 (0.91, 1.00) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.15 (0.97, 1.38) | 0.97 (0.80, 1.18) | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.84, 1.20) | 0.93 (0.78, 1.11) | 0.97 (0.92, 1.02) |
|
| ||||||
|
Pooledd
| ||||||
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.21 (1.11, 1.32) | 1.02 (0.92, 1.14) | 1.00 | 1.09 (0.99, 1.20) | 0.88 (0.79, 0.98) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.97) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) | 0.99 (0.89, 1.09) | 1.00 | 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) | 0.87 (0.79, 0.95) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.97) |
|
| ||||||
|
DECAFFEINATED COFFEE
| ||||||
| Moderate to large decrease (>1 cup/day) | Small to moderate decrease (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | No change (±1 cup/week) | Small to moderate increase (1 cup/week-1 cup/day) | Moderate to large increase (>1 cup/day) | HR per 1 serving | |
|
| ||||||
|
HPFS
| ||||||
| n | 1925 | 2794 | 19307 | 2282 | 1451 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 129/27687 | 150/40236 | 1193/277172 | 138/33328 | 94/21261 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.16 (0.93, 1.45) | 0.99 (0.80, 1.22) | 1.00 | 0.91 (0.76, 1.09) | 0.97 (0.78, 1.21) | 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.12 (0.90, 1.40) | 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) | 1.00 | 0.95 (0.79, 1.15) | 0.96 (0.77, 1.21) | 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS
| ||||||
| n | 4360 | 5020 | 32313 | 3730 | 3042 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 272/64830 | 345/74308 | 2420/477442 | 254/55573 | 191/45563 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 0.98 (0.84, 1.13) | 1.04 (0.91, 1.19) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.79, 1.03) | 0.93 (0.80, 1.09) | 0.95 (0.91, 0.99) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 0.96 (0.82, 1.11) | 1.02 (0.90, 1.17) | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.82, 1.07) | 0.95 (0.82, 1.11) | 0.97 (0.92, 1.01) |
|
| ||||||
|
NHS II
| ||||||
| n | 2134 | 4721 | 35296 | 3642 | 1717 | |
| Cases/Person-years | 63/24596 | 180/54079 | 1666/404713 | 121/42485 | 53/20048 | |
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.25 (0.85, 1.85) | 0.93 (0.79, 1.10) | 1.00 | 0.71 (0.59, 0.86) | 0.75 (0.56, 0.99) | 0.89 (0.81, 0.97) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.19 (0.81, 1.76) | 0.98 (0.82, 1.15) | 1.00 | 0.78 (0.65, 0.95) | 0.88 (0.67, 1.17) | 0.94 (0.86, 1.03) |
|
| ||||||
|
Pooledd
| ||||||
| Multivariable adjusted 1b | 1.07 (0.92, 1.23) | 0.99 (0.91, 1.09) | 1.00 | 0.84 (0.72, 0.98) | 0.90 (0.80, 1.02) | 0.94 (0.91, 0.98) |
| Multivariable adjusted 2c | 1.02 (0.91, 1.15) | 1.01 (0.92, 1.10) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.80, 1.00) | 0.94 (0.84, 1.06) | 0.96 (0.93, 1.00) |
Reference category.
Adjusted for age, family history of diabetes (yes/no), race (white/non-white), postmenopausal hormone use (premenopausal, postmenopausal current user, postmenopausal never/past user, missing), physical exam in the previous cycle (yes/no), change in smoking status (never to never, never to current, current to current, current to past, past to current, past to past) baseline alcohol intake (0, 0.1-4.9, 5-9.9, 10-14.9, ≥15 g/d), change in alcohol intake (quintiles), baseline physical activity (<3, 3-8.9, 9-17.9, 18-26.9, ≥27 METS/week), change in physical activity (quintiles), history of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia (yes/no), baseline and 4-year changes in beverage intake (quintiles or tertiles; beverages include sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, punch, milk, tea, caffeinated coffee/decaffeinated coffee depending on the model), baseline alternate healthy eating index score, and change in alternate healthy eating index score.
Multivariable model 1 + baseline BMI (<21, 21-22.9, 23-24.9, 25-26.9, 27-29.9, 30-34.9, 35-39.9, ≥40 kg/m2) and change in body weight (quintiles)
The results across the 3 cohorts were pooled using an inverse variance-weighted, random-effects meta-analysis.