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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: Popul Dev Rev. 2014 Jun 14;40(2):331–360. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00676.x

Table 4.

Measures of fit and discrimination for models predicting mortality as a function of social and demographic characteristics, self-reported indicators of health status, and biomarkers

Model Description Average
log La 		Number of
parameters		 Average
AICb 		AUCc Change in AUC
0 Baseline: Social and demographic characteristics only −112.4 9 242.9 0.745
Panel 1: Self-reported health indicators vs Model 0
1 Model 0 + Self-reported health indicators −83.7 17 201.3 0.817 0.072***
Panel 2: Biomarkers vs Model 0
2 Model 0 + Biomarker summary score 2006 −94.9 10 209.8 0.788 0.043**
3 Model 0 + Biomarker summary score (2006 & change 2000-06) −89.4 11 200.8 0.796 0.051**
4a Model 0 + Individual biomarkers 2006 −76.8 28 209.5 0.814 0.069***
4b Model 0 + Best individual biomarkers 2006d −82.8 19 203.6 0.803 0.058**
5a Model 0 + Individual biomarkers (2006 & changes 2000-06) −57.4 48 210.9 0.846 0.101***
5b Model 0 + Best individual biomarkers (2006 & changes 2000-06)d −68.9 30 197.7 0.830 0.084***
Panel 3: Biomarkers net of self-reported health indicators vs Model 1
6 Model 1 + Biomarker summary score 2006 −70.8 18 177.6 0.841 0.024
7 Model 1 + Biomarker summary score (2006 & change 2000-06) −67.8 19 173.5 0.845 0.028*
8a Model 1 + Individual biomarkers in 2006 −53.6 36 179.2 0.856 0.039*
8b Model 1 + Best individual biomarkers in 2006d −59.0 27 172.1 0.849 0.031*
9a Model 1 + Individual biomarkers (2000 & changes 2000-06) −37.6 56 187.3 0.875 0.058**
9b Model 1 + Best individual biomarkers (2006 & changes 2000-06)d −48.1 38 172.2 0.864 0.047*
***

p<0.001,

**

p<0.01,

*

p<0.05

a

The model is fitted on each of five multiply imputed datasets, and then we compute the mean of the five corresponding log L values.

b

Based on the average log L across five multiply imputed datasets. Lower values of AIC indicate better model fit.

c

Higher values of AUC indicate better discrimination. An AUC of 0.5 would indicate that the model was no better than random chance.

d

Model includes the best 10 (out of 19) biomarkers as determined by comparing model fit (AIC) for 19 separate models in which the two parameters (2006 level & 2000-06 change) for each marker were added to the baseline model. The best 10 markers comprise HDL, BMI, IL-6, CRP, sICAM-1, sE-selectin, DHEAS, creatinine clearance, albumin, and homocysteine.