Figure 1.

Mean prediction performance per arm of each method for HbA1c prediction at end of trial (26/28 weeks). Predictions were obtained using 12-week data and prediction errors were expressed as the deviation between the mean of individual predictions and the mean of the observations per arm. Arm 1: Insulin glargine, Arm 2: Insulin detemir, Arm 3: Biphasic insulin aspart, Arm 4: Insulin glargine, Arm 5: Liraglutide 1.8 mg + metformin, Arm 6: Metformin + rosiglitazone, Arm 7: Liraglutide 1.2 mg + metformin + rosiglitazone, Arm 8: Liraglutide 0.6 mg + metformin, Arm 9: Liraglutide 1.8 mg + metformin, Arm 10: Glimepiride + metformin, Arm 11: Metformin, Arm 12: Liraglutide 1.2 mg + metformin. Key to symbols: Method 1 (filled blue diamonds),¹⁷ Method 2 (filled red squares),¹⁴ Method 3 (open blue diamonds),¹⁷ Method 4 (open red triangles),¹⁸ Method 5 (filled green triangles).¹⁹