Table 5.

Maximum likelihood estimates (SE) of Model parameters in the Nun study for two models (base state: 1=Intact Cognition)

		Weibull Model			Cox PH Model
Risk Factors	State	Estimates	s.e	e.s.e.	Estimates	s.e	e.s.e.
Markov chain
Age	2	0.1010*	0.017	0.016	0.1129*	0.020	0.020
	3	0.1813*	0.020	0.019	0.1955*	0.023	0.022
	4	0.1772*	0.024	0.021	0.1873*	0.026	0.027
APOE4	2	0.8585*	0.244	0.307	1.1765*	0.336	0.450
	3	1.3132*	0.274	0.354	1.6383*	0.358	0.492
	4	1.4282*	0.306	0.353	1.7335*	0.383	0.488
Education:
< 16 years	2	1.5658*	0.361	0.345	2.0148*	0.491	0.489
vs. > 16 years	3	1.6105*	0.402	0.421	2.0493*	0.521	0.572
	4	1.4504*	0.446	0.461	1.8779*	0.555	0.620
16 years	2	0.4969*	0.164	0.178	0.7549*	0.246	0.238
vs. > 16 years	3	0.5276*	0.199	0.204	0.7786*	0.270	0.258
	4	0.4032	0.239	0.228	0.6528*	0.300	0.277
Prior states:
Intact Cognition	2	−1.1103*	0.337	0.369	−0.7579*	0.369	0.433
	3	−3.7083*	0.329	0.417	−3.3338*	0.362	0.479
	4	−5.2264*	0.548	1.650	−4.8818*	0.570	1.435
Mild Cognitive Impairment	2	0.7399*	0.328	0.330	0.4734	0.354	0.354
	3	−2.3053*	0.307	0.322	−2.5663*	0.335	0.337
	4	−1.9313*	0.328	0.318	−2.2025*	0.354	0.323
Survival Part:
Age at Entry	-	0.1206*	0.019	0.020	0.0982*	0.014	0.015
APOE4	-	0.4794*	0.231	0.250	0.3937*	0.175	0.185
Sigma	-	1.0026*	0.116	0.134	1.6409*	0.200	0.233

States: 2=Mild cognitive impairment, 3=Global impairment, 4=Dementia;

e.s.e is the estimated standard error from bootstrap resampling method

^*Significant at P < 0.05