Table 3.

Distribution of cases and controls into risk categories

Variable	Baseline Risk Model (%)		Expanded Risk Model (%)
	Cases	Controls	Cases	Controls
0%–10%	29.0	86.5	29.0	87.4
>10%–≤25%	25.8	11.0	19.4	9.4
>25%	45.2	2.5	51.6	3.2

Both risk models place 29% of cases into the low-risk category, but the expanded risk model places more cases into the highest-risk category. This suggests that the expanded risk model does a better job at identifying cases as high risk. However, the expanded risk model also places more controls into the highest-risk category. Because the controls are most of the population, this could be a serious drawback for the expanded risk model. Note that this table extracts the information from the “Total” row and columns of Table 1.