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. 2014 Aug 7;4:5982. doi: 10.1038/srep05982

Table 1. Estimated number of cases involved on the 20th day of this outbreak under the quarantine and isolation of different proportional students from different grades on the first day, second day, third day, fourth day and fifth day of the outbreak, assuming the outbreak was initiated by different student grades respectively.

      Estimated number of cases
First case Population intervened Proportion intervened Onset date of intervention: First day Second day Third day Fourth day Fifth day
Freshman Freshmen 25%   845 981 1025 1090 1136
  Sophomore 25%   1903 1916 1931 1942 1992
  Juniors 25%   1942 1946 1959 1970 2017
  Seniors 25%   1966 1971 1976 1982 2026
  Freshmen 50%   609 744 791 868 922
  Sophomore 50%   1842 1856 1870 1882 1929
  Juniors 50%   1903 1909 1923 1934 1981
  Seniors 50%   1929 1939 1949 1958 2001
  Freshmen 75%   366 498 549 637 701
  Sophomore 75%   1776 1790 1804 1815 1861
  Juniors 75%   1861 1868 1886 1894 1943
  Seniors 75%   1910 1921 1927 1932 1976
Sophomore Freshmen 25%   988 1011 1045 1109 1156
  Sophomore 25%   549 749 815 916 939
  Juniors 25%   1211 1218 1229 1280 1282
  Seniors 25%   1221 1227 1250 1282 1283
  Freshmen 50%   880 899 927 978 1020
  Sophomore 50%   469 680 751 860 988
  Juniors 50%   1200 1217 1221 1278 1280
  Seniors 50%   1220 1221 1247 1280 1282
  Freshmen 75%   763 777 796 833 846
  Sophomore 75%   388 612 687 805 858
  Juniors 75%   1191 1215 1218 1276 1279
  Seniors 75%   1214 1220 1244 1278 1280
Junior Freshmen 25%   818 869 912 957 982
  Sophomore 25%   1018 1025 1060 1102 1107
  Juniors 25%   488 718 786 856 1101
  Seniors 25%   1075 1076 1089 1126 1129
  Freshmen 50%   722 765 802 829 865
  Sophomore 50%   994 1003 1043 1089 1093
  Juniors 50%   440 679 752 836 881
  Seniors 50%   1071 1075 1088 1125 1127
  Freshmen 75%   619 653 680 702 739
  Sophomore 75%   970 981 1026 1075 1080
  Juniors 75%   394 641 721 804 842
  Seniors 75%   1069 1074 1086 1121 1124
Senior Freshmen 25%   810 826 858 863 883
  Sophomore 25%   985 1003 1005 1021 1081
  Juniors 25%   1025 1031 1032 1046 1101
  Seniors 25%   483 636 771 874 981
  Freshmen 50%   715 726 752 789 856
  Sophomore 50%   961 981 988 1009 1066
  Juniors 50%   1019 1029 1031 1044 1100
  Seniors 50%   437 595 743 802 861
  Freshmen 75%   612 617 636 673 722
  Sophomore 75%   937 958 971 997 1052
  Juniors 75%   1015 1028 1030 1040 1099
  Seniors 75%   391 556 718 780 837