Table 6.
Sensitivity analyses - the effect of different treatment options on HCV-related morbidity and mortality
| Inputs | Number of HCV-related HCCs in 2020 (percentage change from scenario in Table 2) | Liver-related deaths caused by HCV in 2020 (percentage change from scenario in Table 2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario: increasing diagnosis and treatment (Table 2) |
-- |
310 |
280 |
| Change segment treated |
Allow treatment of F1 |
400 (30%) |
390 (40%) |
| Restrict treatment to ≥ F2 |
260 (−15%) |
270 (−5%) |
|
| Change age of treated |
Allow treatment of 79+ |
260 (−15%) |
260 (−5%) |
| Restrict treatment to 69 |
400 (30%) |
330 (20%) |
|
| Change in the number treated (current- 12,000 in 2018) |
Treat 3,000 (75% fewer) |
590 (90%) |
540 (95%) |
| Treat 6,000 (50% fewer) |
470 (50%) |
430 (55%) |
|
| Treat 9,000 (25% fewer) |
360 (15%) |
330 (20%) |
|
| Treat 15,000 (25% more) |
300 (−5%) |
280 (0%) |
|
| Treat 18,000 (50% more) |
290 (−5%) |
280 (0%) |
|
| Treat 21,000 (75% more) |
280 (−10%) |
270 (−5%) |
|
| Change in the number diagnosed (Dx) (current- 13,000 in 2016)* | Dx 3,000 (75% fewer) |
410 (30%) |
370 (30%) |
| Dx 7,000 (50% fewer) |
350 (15%) |
320 (15%) |
|
| Dx 10,000 (25% fewer) | 330 (5%) | 200 (5%) |
*Increasing the diagnosis rate above 13,000 had no effect under the current treatment levels and so has not been included.