Table 4.

Ability of a Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) Mortality Model Based on All Follow-upand Using Clinical Classification System (CCS) Conditions as Developed for One Type of Fractureto Predict Excess Deaths Following Another Fracture Type Compared to Predictions from the Charles Comorbidity Index Itself or From a GBM Model Using the Charlson Index Diagnoses. C-Index Is Shown

Fracture (Fx) cause	All Fx model [CCS conditions]	Severe trauma Fx model [CCS conditions]	Moderate trauma Fxmodel [CCS conditions]	All Fx model [Charlson diagnoses]	All Fx model [Charlson score]
All follow-up
All Fx mortality	0.88 (0.86-0.90)	0.86 (0.84-0.87)	0.88 (0.86-0.89)	0.80 (0.78-0.81)	0.80 (0.78-0.82)
Severe trauma Fx mortality	0.90 (0.87-0.94)	0.91 (0.88-0.94)	0.89 (0.85-0.92)	0.81 (0.78-0.85)	0.80 (0.77-0.83)
Moderate trauma Fx mortality	0.86 (0.84-0.88)	0.83 (0.81-0.85)	0.86 (0.84-0.88)	0.78 (0.76-0.80)	0.78 (0.76-0.80)
< 5 years after Fx
All Fx mortality	0.88 (0.85-0.90)	0.85 (0.83-0.88)	0.87 (0.84-0.89)	0.81 (0.78-0.83)	0.78 (0.75-0.80)
Severe trauma Fx mortality	0.91 (0.85-0.97)	0.91 (0.86-0.97)	0.90 (0.84-0.96)	0.81 (0.75-0.87)	0.79 (0.73-0.84)
Moderate trauma Fx mortality	0.85 (0.82-0.88)	0.82 (0.79-0.85)	0.85 (0.82-0.88)	0.78 (0.75-0.81)	0.77 (0.73-0.80)
≥ 5 years after fracture
All Fx mortality	0.89 (0.87-0.91)	0.87 (0.85-0.89)	0.88 (0.86-0.91)	0.80 (0.78-0.82)	0.81 (0.79-0.84)
Severe trauma Fx mortality	0.91 (0.87-0.95)	0.91 (0.87-0.95)	0.89 (0.85-0.93)	0.82 (0.78-0.86)	0.82 (0.78-0.86)
Moderate trauma Fx mortality	0.87 (0.84-0.90)	0.84 (0.81-0.86)	0.87 (0.85-0.90)	0.78 (0.76-0.81)	0.80 (0.77-0.83)

Bolding indicates c-index for a specific model applied to its own excess mortality outcomes.