Table 2.
Base Case Results: Costs and Alloimmunization Events Associated with Alternative Antigen-Matching Strategies
| Patients Alloimmunized (%)a | Cost Per Patient ($) |
Alloimmunization Events Per Patient |
Cost Per Alloimmunization Event Averted ($, vs History-Based Matching)d | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Cost | Comparison vs History-Based Matchingb | Comparison vs Prospective Matchingc | Average No. Events | Comparison vs History-Based Matchingb | Comparison vs Prospective Matchingc | |||
| 10 Years | ||||||||
| Strategy 1: History-Based Antigen-Matching | 30 | 162,623 | -- | −84,578 | 0.46 | -- | 0.21 | -- |
| Strategy 2: Prospective Antigen-Matching | 20 | 247,201 | 84,578 | -- | 0.25 | −0.21 | -- | 412,132 |
| Strategy 3: Perfectly Informed Antigen-Matching | 20 | 164,866 | 2,244 | −82,334 | 0.25 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 10,934 |
| Strategy 4: Imperfectly Informed Antigen-Matching | ||||||||
| Test Sensitivity = 75%, Specificity = 75%, Cost = $1000 | 22 | 185,389 | 22,767 | −61,812 | 0.31 | −0.15 | 0.06 | 147,915 |
| Test Sensitivity = 75%, Specificity = 100%, Cost = $1000 | 22 | 164,556 | 1,933 | −82,645 | 0.31 | −0.15 | 0.06 | 12,558 |
| Test Sensitivity = 100%, Specificity = 75%, Cost = $1000 | 20 | 185,700 | 23,077 | −61,501 | 0.25 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 112,452 |
| 20 Years | ||||||||
| Strategy 1: History-Based Antigen-Matching | 30 | 287,313 | −145,752 | 0.60 | 0.19 | |||
| Strategy 2: Prospective Antigen-Matching | 26 | 433,064 | 145,752 | -- | 0.41 | −0.19 | -- | 759,799 |
| Strategy 3: Perfectly Informed Antigen-Matching | 26 | 288,721 | 1,409 | −144,343 | 0.41 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 7,344 |
| Strategy 4: Imperfectly Informed Antigen-Matching | ||||||||
| Test Sensitivity = 75%, Specificity = 75%, Cost = $1000 | 27 | 324,955 | 37,642 | −108,109 | 0.46 | −0.14 | 0.05 | 261,638 |
| Test Sensitivity = 75%, Specificity = 100%, Cost = $1000 | 27 | 288,619 | 1,307 | −144,445 | 0.46 | −0.14 | 0.05 | 9,082 |
| Test Sensitivity = 100%, Specificity = 75%, Cost = $1000 | 26 | 325,057 | 37,745 | −108,007 | 0.41 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 196,761 |
Portion of patients alloimmunized reflects the portion of patients in the cohort modeled who are expected to experience an alloimmunization event during the analysis period (10 or 20 years).
Comparison versus Strategy 1 (History-Based Antigen-Matching). Positive values indicate an increase in costs or alloimmunization events and negative values indicate a decrease in outcomes.
Comparison versus Strategy 2 (Prospective Antigen-Matching). Positive values indicate an increase in costs or alloimmunization events and negative values indicate a decrease in outcomes.
Cost per Alloimmunization Event Averted calculated using the incremental cost and incremental change in alloimmunization events, as compared to History-Based Antigen Matching