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. 2014 Aug 18;7:10.3402/gha.v7.24482. doi: 10.3402/gha.v7.24482

Table 1.

Scenario planning stages and activities for different contexts

Business context (13) Community development context

Steps Focus group Stages Activities
  • Identifying focal issue

  • Identifying key forces influencing issue in the local environment and their driving forces

1 Opening a time-perspective, connecting to experience
  • Refined focal issue

  • Identified and ranked driving forces by importance

  • Ranking these by importance and uncertainty

  • Selecting scenario logics

2 Analyze and project
  • ‘Told’ scenarios for the most uncertain, ranked, paired combinations of drivers

  • Fleshing out scenarios

  • Discussing their implications

3 Scale to real-life first steps
  • Listened to scenarios

  • Discussed implications, options, and next steps

  • Selecting leading indicators for monitoring

  • Adapting plans accordingly

4 Self-assessment of scenario process – build ownership
  • Discussed usefulness, sustainability, and application of scenarios building process/tool