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. 2014 Aug 5;111(33):11973–11978. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1410183111

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

A simple PSHA model used in our testing examples. Gray lines show the experts’ ensemble of 20 exponential hazard curves {Fm(x): m = 1, …, 20}. Black line is the corresponding mean hazard curve F¯(x). The distribution of values sampled at x0 (dashed line) is given in Fig. 2.