Table II.

Improved Forecasting of DAS28 Trajectory with Individual Data

DAS28 observation schedule	No. of DAS28 scores	R2 60 week change in DAS28 true versus predicted (%)
Schedule 1. None	0	3
Schedule 2. Weeks 0–60 at weekly intervals	61	90
Schedule 3. Week 0	1	5
Schedule 4. Weeks 0, 3	2	10
Schedule 5. Weeks 0, 3, 6	3	11
Schedule 6. Weeks 0, 12, 26	3	43

A simulation study where Bayesian forecasting was used to predict the DAS28 after 60 weeks of triple therapy for each patient (n = 9996). The prior was the population model of Wojciechowski (53), while various observation schedules for individual DAS28 data were examined, ranging from 0 to 61 observations for each patient. The relationship between true and Bayes predicted change in DAS28 from baseline at 60 weeks is summarized by the R² value for the regression of true versus predicted value