Figure 3. Density of Crown-of-Thorn starfish (COTS) based upon belt-transect data across Saipan, Tinian, and Rota from 2000 to 2012.

(a). Densities represent island-based averages that diminish the highest and lowest observations in order to establish patterns across study years. Disturbance reduced coral cover on all islands, but recover trajectories, or the net rate of change, differed by island (b). Coral cover declined on Saipan with no significant recovery (*indicates P<0.05, repeat measures ANOVA and post-hoc tests), while a non-significant decline and recovery was noted on Rota. Echinothrix urchins also declined (c) in density during the disturbance period, with a further decline in the years after disturbance (*indicates P<0.05, zero-inflated hurdle models). Black arrows indicate tropical storms that passed by the study islands during the disturbance timeframe (grey rectangle box indicates the disturbance timeframe).