Letters returned by neighbourhood threat index. Predicted probability of return of in-group, out-group and neutral lost letters by the level of neighbourhood threat index. This measure is the neighbourhood aggregate of the continuous factors, which are composed of the variables related to the individual exposure to sectarian attacks and threat (details are provided in the electronic supplementary material). This effect is controlled for neighbourhood religious composition, income deprivation, number of post-boxes, population density and level of religious heterogeneity. Error bars represent the standard errors. (Online version in colour.)