Table 2.
Estimated UK population effects for cancers with evidence of a net positive association with body-mass index (BMI)
| New cases per year (UK)* | n (%) cases attributable to overweight and obesity | Projected extra cases per year with a 1 kg/m2 population-wide increase in BMI (99% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colon (C18) | 26 725 | 2970 (11·1%) | 559 (519–598) |
| Liver (C22) | 4241 | 661 (15·6%) | 145 (135–154) |
| Gall bladder (C23) | 660 | 134 (20·3%) | 36 (35–37) |
| Breast (postmenopausal, C50) | 39 812 | 2035 (5·1%) | 1441 (1417–1465) |
| Cervix (C53) | 2851 | 214 (7·5%) | 51 (50–53) |
| Uterus (C54–55) | 8288 | 3384 (40·8%) | 806 (784–829) |
| Ovaries (C56) | 7011 | 512 (7·3%) | 125 (118–133) |
| Kidney (C64) | 9639 | 1597 (16·6%) | 428 (414–442) |
| Thyroid (C73) | 2654 | 51 (1·9%) | 49 (48–51) |
| Leukaemia (C91–95) | 8257 | 522 (6·3%) | 150 (138–163) |
Attributable cases and percentage based on models for each cancer with a three-category BMI variable (underweight, normal, or overweight and obese), adjusted for age, diabetes status, smoking, alcohol use, socioeconomic status, calendar year, and stratified by sex; attributable cases were calculated separately for men and women and then combined; we assumed the prevalence of overweight including obese to be 65% in men and 58% in women (Health Survey for England 201016). Further details on our method for these calculations are given in appendix (p 2). Projected extra cases calculated with fitted Poisson models with non-linear BMI splines to predict proportion of extra cases in an artificial population sampled from the original cohort to replicate the age and sex structure of the UK population, with all BMIs increased by 1 kg/m2, and applying proportionate increase to the annual number of UK cases
(Cancer Research UK cancer statistics11); 99% CIs are from a bootstrapping procedure.