Table 2.
Sensitivity of the model to A: Main model parameters and B: Alternate settings
| A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2008/2009 | |||
| Parameter variation | +50% | -50% | +50% | -50% |
| Biting rate | 1261 (717–1719) | 48 (10–117) | 2471 (1984–2930) | 14 (2–61) |
| Asymptomatic fraction | 362 (172–527) | 516 (165–818) | 743 (370–938) | 698 (100–1086) |
| Mosquito to human transmission probability | 461 (138–746) | 217 (18–349) | 794 (4–1183) | 194 (3–390) |
| Human to mosquito transmission probability | 564 (291–828) | 355 (160–538) | 880 (501–1355) | 439 (25–779) |
| B | ||||
| Alternate Setting | ||||
| No mosquito mobility | 34 (6–152) | 99 (3–421) | ||
| No human mobility | 104 (28–184) | 19 (6–58) | ||
| No state of emergency | N/A | 1479 (440–2202) | ||
| Index cell with low mosquito density | 12 (1–26) | 4 (1–30) | ||
The values in the table appearing in bold are medians of 60 simulations, with 95% confidence intervals given in parentheses. For comparison the predicted case number without any parameter variation for 2003 and 2008/2009 were 420 (71 – 682) and 692 (174 – 1029) respectively (see e.g. Figure 9 A and D in the main manuscript).