Figure 2. Predicted outcomes 2025–2060 of eight vaccine introduction scenarios in 2025.

(i) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 0.0 log₁₀, (ii) prevention efficacy 30%, viral load efficacy 0.0 log₁₀, (iii) prevention efficacy 50%, viral load efficacy 0.0 log₁₀, (iv) prevention efficacy 90%, viral load efficacy 0.0 log₁₀, (v) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 1.0 log₁₀, (vi) prevention efficacy 0.0, viral load efficacy 2.0 log₁₀, (vii) prevention efficacy 50%, viral load efficacy 1.0 log₁₀, (viii) prevention efficacy 90%, viral load efficacy 2.0 log₁₀. All in the context of vaccination at 15, with a rate of vaccination per 3 months of 0.3 amongst those age 15–17 (and a 5 year catch-up program amongst adults age 18–30 covering 50% of the population of that age), with a maximum coverage (in 15–17 year olds) of 70%, and with regular boosters every 5 years (the assumed duration of vaccine effect) with 80% of people being adherent to these boosts.