Table 3. Mean over 2040–2060 of on-going vaccine effect, HIV incidence (per 1000 person years and death rate (/100 person years) in the whole population, according to variations in vaccine implementation characteristics.
| Difference from base scenario | Vaccine efficacy | |||||||||
| Prevention viral load (log10) | 0% | 30% | 50% | 90% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 90% | ||
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | |||
| % with on-going vaccine effect | None (base) | 0% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | |
| Boosting to age 30 | 0% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | ||
| 50% completion rates to boosters | 0% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | ||
| 25% completion rates to boosters | 0% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | ||
| Coverage 40% | 0% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | ||
| No adult catch-up program | 0% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | ||
| Tapering in effect | 0% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | ||
| Vaccination age 10 | 0% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | ||
| Rate vaccination 0.2/3mths | 0% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | ||
| Duration vaccine effect 2 years | 0% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | ||
| Booster uptake decrease | 0% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | ||
| Vaccine effect on VL in 50% of people | 0% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 23% | 23% | 45% | 45% | ||
| Prophylactic vaccine effect in 50% of people | 0% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | ||
| Targeted at people having condom-less sex in past year with new partner | 0% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | ||
| Incidence (/1000 person years) | None (base) | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | |
| Boosting to age 30 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | ||
| 50% completion rates to boosters | 7.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | ||
| 25% completion rates to boosters | 7.7 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | ||
| Coverage 40% | 7.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | ||
| No adult catch-up program | 7.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | ||
| Tapering in effect | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.5 | ||
| Vaccination age 10 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | ||
| Rate vaccination 0.2/3mths | 7.7 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | ||
| Duration vaccine effect 2 years | 7.7 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | ||
| Booster uptake decrease | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | ||
| Vaccine effect on VL in 50% of people | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | ||
| Prophylactic vaccine effect in 50% of people | 7.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | ||
| Targeted at people having condom-less sex in past year with new partner | 7.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | ||
| Death rate in whole population (/100 person years) | None (base) | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.92 | |
| Boosting to age 30 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.94 | ||
| 50% completion rates to boosters | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.95 | ||
| 25% completion rates to boosters | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.97 | ||
| Coverage 40% | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 0.95 | ||
| No adult catch-up program | 1.19 | 1.10 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 0.99 | ||
| Tapering in effect | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.00 | ||
| Vaccination age 10 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.95 | ||
| Rate vaccination 0.2/3mths | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.93 | ||
| Duration vaccine effect 2 years | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.93 | ||
| Booster uptake decrease | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.93 | ||
| Vaccine effect on VL in 50% of people | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 0.93 | ||
| Prophylactic vaccine effect in 50% of people | 1.19 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 0.96 | ||
| Targeted at people having condom-less sex in past year with new partner | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.95 | ||
Base scenario: Coverage 70%, boosting to age 50, with 80% completion rates to boosters, no tapering in effect over time, and with an adult catch-up program in 18–30 years covering 50% of the population of that age, rate vaccination = 0.3/3mths, vaccine effect on VL in 100% of people, duration of vaccine effect 5 years, age of introduction 15. For each row, one characteristic is made different from the base scenario. 95% CI shown in Table S1, along with further comparisons.