Table 4. Multivariable uncertainty analysis based on 500 runs.

Prevention efficacy	Viral load efficacy (log10)	Incidence rate ratio (vs. no vaccine) 2040–60
		Median (90% uncertainty range) over runs in which parameters vary	Base case
30%	0.0	0.59 (0.41–0.79)	0.48
50%	0.0	0.39 (0.21–0.60)	0.30
90%	0.0	0.17 (0.10–0.37)	0.13
0%	1.0	0.87 (0.69–1.09)	0.86
0%	2.0	0.77 (0.56–1.05)	0.68
50%	1.0	0.38 (0.23–0.58)	0.30
90%	2.0	0.16 (0.09–0.40)	0.13

Variation in effect of vaccine on HIV incidence under parameter variation, sampling from distributions of parameter values given in Supplementary Methods and Results in File S1.