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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Sep 17.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet. 2014 May 2;384(9947):957–979. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9

Table 5. Shapley decomposition analysis of the change in the number of under-5 deaths (thousands) related to changes in income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rate, births, secular trends, and unexplained factors, 2013 versus 1990, worldwide and in the 21 GBD regions.

Fertility Maternal education HIV/AIDS Income Unexplained Secular trend Total
Global 1423·6 (1412·9 to 1436·2) −2223·8 (−2402·7 to −2040·4) 32·4 (29·6 to 35·2) −902·1 (−983·3 to −821·1) 57·8 (−555·9 to 662·7) −4170·4 (−4789 to −3495·9) −5782·5 (−5834·6 to −5746·9)
High–income Asia Pacific −2·3 (−2·3 to −2·3) −1·6 (−1·8 to −1·5) 0 (0 to 0) −0·9 (−1 to −0·8) 0·6 (0 to 1·3) −5·3 (−6 to −4·6) −9·5 (−9·6 to −9·5)
Central Asia −6·2 (−6·3 to −6) −19·8 (−21·5 to −18·3) 0 (0 to 0) −2·7 (−3 to −2·4) 30·2 (22·5 to 38·7) −67·3 (−75·9 to −59·8) −65·7 (−66·4 to −65·2)
East Asia −242·1 (−242·9 to −241·4) −195·4 (−211·1 to −180·3) 0·3 (0·3 to 0·3) −211·9 (−230·7 to −192·8) −316·4 (−368·1 to −262·1) −292·2 (−347·7 to −237·9) −1257·7 (−1259·2 to −1256·4)
South Asia −78·5 (−82·5 to −75·6) −826·2 (−900·1 to −752) −7·9 (−8·6 to −7·2) −405·1 (−447·9 to −366·3) 492·2 (−38·6 to 1046) −1608.0 (−2153·1 to −1081·3) −2433·5 (−2485·7 to −2398·3)
Southeast Asia −19·7 (−19·8 to −19·6) −142·3 (−153·9 to −131·3) 0·6 (0·5 to 0·6) −73·6 (−80·3 to −67) −65.0 (−107·4 to −23) −229·8 (−275·1 to −185·8) −529·8 (−531·4 to −528·7)
Australasia 0·4 (0·4 to 0·4) −0·3 (−0·4 to −0·3) 0 (0 to 0) −0·2 (−0·2 to −0·2) 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·3) −1·4 (−1·6 to −1·2) −1·4 (−1·4 to −1·4)
Caribbean −1·2 (−1·2 to −1·2) −12·5 (−13·5 to −11·5) −1·6 (−1·8 to −1·5) −0·5 (−0·6 to −0·5) 0·7 (−2·4 to 3·9) −16·5 (−19·7 to −13·2) −31·7 (−31·8 to −31·6)
Central Europe −7·1 (−7·2 to −7·1) −3·5 (−3·8 to −3·2) 0 (0 to 0) −1·4 (−1·5 to −1·2) −2·5 (−4 to −0·9) −13·4 (−15 to −12) −27·9 (−28·1 to −27·8)
Eastern Europe −9·8 (−9·9 to −9·6) −7·1 (−7·7 to −6·6) 0 (0 to 0) −0·6 (−0·6 to −0·5) 2·9 (−0·5 to 6·4) −29·8 (−33·5 to −26·6) −44·5 (−44·8 to −44·2)
Western Europe 0·3 (0·3 to 0·3) −5·3 (−5·7 to −4·9) 0 (0 to 0) −1·7 (−1·9 to −1·6) −1.0 (−2·9 to 1·1) −16·8 (−19 to −14·8) −24·6 (−24·6 to −24·5)
Andean Latin America 0·5 (0·5 to 0·5) −16·4 (−17·7 to −15·1) 0 (0 to 0) −3·8 (−4·1 to −3·4) −14·6 (−18·8 to −10·3) −23·2 (−27·6 to −18·6) −57·5 (−57·6 to −57·5)
Central Latin America 0·8 (0·8 to 0·8) −35·4 (−38·3 to −32·7) −0·1 (−0·2 to −0·1) −6·5 (−7·1 to −5·9) −25·1 (−35·4 to −14·7) −56·2 (−66·9 to −45) −122·7 (−122·9 to −122·5)
Southern Latin America −1·2 (−1·2 to −1·2) −4·4 (−4·8 to −4·1) 0 (0 to 0) −1·9 (−2·1 to −1·8) 3·5 (2·2 to 5) −11·2 (−12·7 to −9·8) −15·2 (−15·3 to −15·1)
Tropical Latin America −19·4 (−19·4 to −19·4) −31 (−33·5 to −28·6) −0·2 (−0·2 to −0·2) −5·2 (−5·7 to −4·7) −34·3 (−42·2 to −26·1) −44·2 (−52·5 to −35·5) −134·2 (−134·4 to −134·2)
North Africa and Middle East 57·2 (56·1 to 58·5) −139·7 (−150·9 to −128·3) 0·3 (0·3 to 0·3) −37·1 (−40·6 to −33·8) −27 (−72·6 to 17·7) −321·9 (−368·3 to −276·2) −468·1 (−469·4 to −467·3)
High-income North America 1·8 (1·8 to 1·9) −2 (−2·2 to −1·9) −0·1 (−0·1 to −0·1) −2·3 (−2·5 to −2·1) 7·2 (4·4 to 10·3) −23·4 (−26·6 to −20·5) −18·8 (−18·9 to −18·8)
Oceania 5 (4·9 to 5·1) −4·1 (−4·4 to −3·7) 0 (0 to 0) −0·7 (−0·8 to −0·6) 4·2 (3 to 5·5) −6·6 (−7·9 to −5·3) −2·1 (−2·1 to −2·1)
Central sub–Saharan Africa 245·1 (243·6 to 246·9) −99·5 (−107·6 to −91·5) 3·6 (3·3 to 3·9) 31·6 (28·7 to 34·4) 30·9 (−0·6 to 62·5) −183·1 (−214·1 to −151·5) 28·6 (27·5 to 29·9)
Eastern sub–Saharan Africa 561 (559·2 to 563·6) −240·9 (−260·5 to −221·7) −5·9 (−6·4 to −5·4) −78·7 (−85·8 to −71·5) −219·2 (−297·9 to −138·5) −490·3 (−571·3 to −407) −474·1 (−474·6 to −473·2)
Southern sub–Saharan Africa 5·6 (5·5 to 5·7) −30 (−32·5 to −27·6) 2·5 (2·3 to 2·8) −1·2 (−1·3 to −1·1) 28 (21·4 to 34·9) −38·5 (−45·2 to −31·8) −33·6 (−33·8 to −33·4)
Western sub–Saharan Africa 933·4 (927·4 to 940·8) −406·2 (−439·5 to −373·5) 40·9 (37·5 to 44·6) −97·5 (−106·1 to −88·5) 162·3 (47·5 to 281·2) −691·3 (−808·8 to −572·2) −58·4 (−60·8 to −55·2)