Table 2.

Performance of the ‘Risk of Hospitalisation’ model for residents identified as ‘Very High Risk’ and ‘High or Very High Risk’

Measure	Cut-off points for comparison
	‘Very high risk’*	‘Very high risk’* +‘High risk’†
Sensitivity‡	0.298	0.471
Specificity§	0.981	0.951
Positive predictive value¶	0.411	0.298
True positives**	46 950	74 196

*‘Very high risk’ is defined as patients with a predicted risk of hospitalisation of ≥25%.

†‘Very high risk’+‘High risk’ is defined as patients with a predicted risk of hospitalisation of ≥15%.

‡Sensitivity is defined as the proportion of those hospitalised who were predicted to be hospitalised (true positive rate).

§Specificity is the proportion of those not hospitalised who were not predicted to be hospitalised (true negative rate).

¶Positive predictive value is the proportion of those predicted to be hospitalised who were actually hospitalised.

**True positives are the number of residents who were predicted to be at risk for hospitalisation at the predicted risk threshold and were actually hospitalised.