Table 2.
Outcomes and Predictors Evaluated and Summary of Results: Histologic Progression
| Study | Outcomes Evaluated | % with Outcome | Years Follow-up (SD; range) | Predictors Significant on Multivariate Analysis | OR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Only Patients with Minimal Fibrosis at Baseline | |||||
| Boccato 2006 | ≥1 METAVIR stage increase | 60 | Mean 7.8 (1.51; 5-10) | ETOH intake (>40g/d) Baseline steatosis |
NR |
| Colletta 2005 | METAVIR ≥2 on follow-up biopsy | 35 | Median 6.5 (NR;2.25-5.5) | HCV RNA >8.0 ×106 copies/ml ETOH intake >20g/d |
NR |
| Fabris 2012 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 61 | Median 10 (NR;5.1-10) | HCV RNA >400,000 IU/ml ETOH intake >30g/d IL28B T/*x chol ≤175 mg/dl Follow-up >8yr |
4.3 (1.4-13) 100 (8-1300) 4.1(1.5-11) 4.9 (1.8-13) |
| Fartoux 2005 | METAVIR 3 or 4 on follow-up biopsy | 16 | Mean 5.2 (2.3;1.5-13.1) | Baseline steatosis | 4.8 (1.3-18.3) |
| Williams 2011 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 42 | Median 4.4 (NR;2-16) | Age (older) Median ALT per 10 IU/L |
1.34 (1.03-1.74) 1.07 (1.01-1.13) |
| Includes Patients with more Advanced Fibrosis at Baseline | |||||
| Baran 2014 | ≥2 Ishak stage increase | 22 | Mean 5.8 (NR; 1.25-18) | Baseline GGT Follow-up ALT (<40 IU/L) Treatment experience (failed) |
1.03 (1.01-1.5) 0.16 (0.03-0.93) 5.97 (1.81-19.7) |
| Castera 2003 | ≥1 METAVIR stage increase | 31 | Mean 4 (2.6; 0.8-14.6) | Worsening steatosis | 4.7 (1.3-10.8) |
| Cross 2009 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 21 | Median 4.2 (NR; 2.8-6.1) | Baseline steatosis | 14.3 (2.1-111.1) |
| Ghany 2003 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 39 | Mean 3.7 (NR; 0.25-17.6) | Baseline Ishak (low) Baseline HAI Baseline ALT (elevated) |
NR |
| Khouri 2003 | ≥1 Ludwig stage increase | 27 | Mean 3.25 (1.1;1-6.8) | None | NR |
| Kurosaki 2008 | ≥1 METAVIR stage increase | 23 | Mean 5.9 (NR;1.2-11.6) | Baseline steatosis Average ALT ≥100 IU/l |
5.14 (1.6-15.7) 5.21 (1.4-18.2) |
| Levine 2006 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 27 | Mean 5 (NR;NR) | Baseline Ishak Baseline ALT (elevated) |
NR |
| Mummadi 2010 | ≥1 stage increase on 0-4 scale | 53 | Median 4 (NR; 2-9) | ΔAPRI ΔFIB-4 |
NR |
| Perumalswami 2006 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 40 | Mean 3.6 (NR; 0.5-17) | Age (older) Baseline ALT (elevated) Baseline Ishak (low) Baseline HAI (higher severity) |
NR |
| Ryder 2004 | ≥1 Ishak stage increase | 33 | Median 2.5 (NR;1.9-9.4) | Age (older) Baseline Ishak (+fibrosis) |
1.08a (1.03-1.11) 1.93a (1.3-9.0) |
| Tamaki 2013 | Not defined | 23 | Mean 4.9 (2.9; NR) | ΔFIB-4 index/yr | 3.7 (1.07-12.5) |
ALT= alanine aminotransferase; APRI= aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index; ETOH= alcohol; GGT= gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase; HAI= histologic activity index; HCV= hepatitis C virus; NR= not reported; RNA= ribonucleic acid;
a
Represents adjusted relative risk (RR) instead of OR.