Table 3.
Outcomes and Predictors Evaluated and Summary of Results: Clinical Outcomes
| Study | Outcomes Evaluated | % with Outcome | Years Follow-up (SD; range) | Predictors Significant on Multivariate Analysis | HR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohorts with Patients with a Broader Range of Fibrosis | |||||
| Ghany 2011 | 1.Decompensation: a)ascites b)variceal bleeding c)HE or d)SBP |
1.13 | Median 6.3 (NR; 1.4-8.7) | 1.Decompensation Baseline Platelets ≤150 Baseline Bilirubin ≤0.8mg/dL Baseline AST/ALT ≤0.8 >15% decrease in platelets >15% increase in bilirubin >15% decrease in albumin |
2.76(1.47-5.19) 0.37(0.18-0.75) 0.50(0.27-0.92) 2.29 (1.26-4.14) 2.62(1.37-5.00) 3.85(1.81-8.18) |
| 2. Hepatic mortality/ liver transplant | 2.17 | 2.Hepatic Mortality/Transplant Baseline platelets ≤150 Baseline albumin ≤3.9 >15% increase in albumin 5-15% increase in AST/ALT |
4.14 (2.29-7.47) 2.32 (1.33-4.06) 3.56 (1.82-6.97) 2.14 (1.16-3.96) |
||
| Giannini 2003 | 1 year overall mortality | 25 | ≥ 1 (NR;NR) | Baseline AST/ALT >1.16 Baseline MELD >9 Baseline CTP score >7 |
NR |
| VanDerMeera 2012 | Overall mortality | 25 | Median 8.1 (NR;NR) | Age (per year) Gender (male) Baseline Platelets per 10×109/L Log Baseline AST/ALT (per 0.1) |
1.06 (1.03-1.09) 1.90 (1.10-3.29) 0.90 (0.86-0.95) 1.29 (1.11-1.50) |
| Vergniol 2011 | Overall 5 year mortality | 8 | Median 3.9 (NR;NR) | Age (older) Treatment Liver stiffness FibroTest ActiTest |
1.03 (1.01-1.04) 0.28 (0.19-0.42) 2.9 (2.0-4.3) 60 (14-255) 0.19 (0.07-0.53) |
| Cohorts Restricted to Patients with Cirrhosis | |||||
| Bruno 2009 | 1.Decompensation: a)ascites b)variceal bleeding or c)HE |
1.40 | Median 14.4 (NR;0.9-19.5) | 1.Decompensation HCV Genotype(1b vs. 2a/c) Esophageal varices Baseline Platelets <80 Baseline Bilirubin ≥1.2ml/dL AFP ≥10ng/ml HCC development |
2.17 (1.31-3.59) 2.09 (1.33-3.30) 1.95 (1.08-3.51) 1.79 (1.16-2.76) 1.59 (1.09-2.32) 5.52 (3.77-8.09) |
| 2. Hepatic mortality | 2.33 | 2.Hepatic Mortality Age (10 yr increase) Gender (Male) HCV Genotype(1b vs. 2a/c) Esophageal varices Creatinine (≥1.2mg/dl) MELD >10 Decompensation HCC development |
1.61( 1.21-2.13) 1.87 (1.23-2.84) 2.37(1.33-4.22) 2.27 (1.41-3.66) 3.07 (1.65-5.73) 2.43 (1.57-3.76) 16.9 (9.97-28.6) 8.62 (5.57-13.3) |
||
| 3. Overall mortality | 3.47 | 3. Overall Mortality Age (10 yr increase) Gender (male) HCV Genotype(1b vs. 2a/c) Esophageal varices MELD >10 AFP ≥1ng/ml Decompensation HCC development |
1.63 (1.28-2.06) 1.88 (1.33-2.66) 1.83 (1.18-2.86) 2.19 (1.47-3.27) 2.15 (1.50-3.09) 1.62 (1.15-2.29) 7.08 (4.88-10.2) 3.80 (2.67-5.42) |
||
| Rincon 2013 | Decompensation: a)ascites b)variceal bleeding or c)HE |
29 | Median 2.3 (NR; 0.2-9.2) | HVPG Baseline albumin |
1.11 (1.05-1.17) 0.42 (0.22-0.82) |
| Sinn 2008 | First occurrence of : a) ≥ 2 increase CTP score b)HCC c)SBP d)variceal bleed, e)HE or f)hepatic mortality |
22 | Median 4.6 (NR;1-12.6) | Age>55 Gender (Male) Diabetes Baseline Platelets <140 Baseline APRI>1 |
2.2 (1.4-3.6) 1.7(1.2-2.3) 1.8(1.3-2.7) 4.9(3.4-7.2) 5.4 (3.5-8.3) |
| Sinn 2013 | Disease progression using same 2008 definition | 14 | Median 4.5 (NR;1-12.6) | Baseline ALT >26 (male) Baseline ALT> 23 (female) Baseline platelets (low, male) Baseline platelets (low, female) |
5.35 (1.05-27.3) 4.40 (1.12-15.8) 0.98 (0.96-0.99) 0.97(0.96-0.98) |
AFP= alpha-fetoprotein; ALT= alanine aminotransferase; APRI= aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index; AST= aspartate aminotransferase; CTP= Child-Turcotte-Pugh; CI= confidence interval; HE= hepatic encephalopathy; HCC= hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV= hepatitis C virus; HVPG= hepatic vein pressure gradient; HR= hazard ratio; MELD= model for end-stage liver disease; NR= not reported; SBP= spontaneous bacterial peritonitis;
a
Univariate significance not reported