Table 4.
Change in Age-Adjusted AUC for ER-Positive Breast Cancer
| Risk Score | Gail Score* |
Rosner-Colditz Score† |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | SE | Change in AUC | SE | P‡ | AUC | SE | Change in AUC | SE | P‡ | |
| Alone | 54.4 | 1.9 | — | — | — | 59.1 | 2.0 | — | — | — |
| Plus estrone | 60.2 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | .005 | 62.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | .07 |
| Plus estradiol | 59.5 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | .01 | 61.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | .22 |
| Plus estrone sulfate | 60.8 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 2.2 | .003 | 62.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | .04 |
| Plus testosterone | 58.5 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | .04 | 61.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | .20 |
| Plus DHEAS | 58.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | .03 | 61.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | .14 |
| Plus SHBG | 57.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | .13 | 60.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | .41 |
| Plus prolactin | 59.5 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | .01 | 62.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | .08 |
| All hormones | 63.5 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 2.3 | < .001 | 65.1 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | .003 |
| Estrone sulfate, SHBG, testosterone, and prolactin§ | 63.2 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 2.3 | < .001 | 64.9 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | .004 |
| Using quartile categories for above four hormones | 63.8 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 2.3 | < .001 | 65.5 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | .002 |
NOTE. Adding endogenous hormone levels to Gail or Rosner-Colditz 5-year risk score.
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; DHEAS, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate; ER, estrogen receptor; SHBG, sex hormone–binding globulin.
*
Patient cases, n = 321.
†
Patient cases, n = 283.
‡
P value indicates difference in AUC from model with only risk score.
§
Hormones selected via stepwise logistic regression; beta coefficients for best-subset hormones were 0.280 for estrone sulfate, 0.236 for testosterone, −0.197 for SHBG, and 0.336 for prolactin for Gail score and 0.256, 0.237, −0.150, and 0.370, respectively, for Rosner-Colditz score.