Table 2. Results of the probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis for the base case scenario with an annual dengue incidence rate of 5.8%.
| Intervention effectiveness | Number of non-hospitalized DF cases averteda (95% CI) | Cost per non-hospitalized DF cases avertedc (95% CI) | Number of hospitalized DF cases averteda (95% CI) | Cost per hospitalized DF cases avertedc (95% CI) | Number of DHF cases averteda (95% CI) | Cost per DHF case avertedb (95% CI) | Number of DALYs averteda (95% CI) | Cost per DALY avertedc (ICER) (95% CI) |
| Intervention cost: $2.5 per child per year | ||||||||
| 50% | 11 (9−13) | −33 (−69−9) | 1 (1−1) | −364 (−766 – 86) | 2 (1−2) | −275 (−507−65) | 0.14 (0.12−0.18) | Dominant |
| 75% | 16 (14−19) | −110 (−136−−81) | 2 (1−2) | −1,212 (−1,487−−896) | 2 (2−3) | −808 (−1,005−−601) | 0.22 (0.18−0.27) | Dominant |
| 100% | 22 (19−25) | −148 (−170−−125) | 2 (2−2) | −1,634 (−1,872−−1,388) | 3 (3−3) | −1,089 (−1,248−−930) | 0.29 (0.24−0.35) | Dominant |
| Intervention cost: $5 per child per year | ||||||||
| 50% | 11 (9−13) | 198 (130−278) | 1 (1−1) | 2,182 (1,422 – 3,064) | 2 (1 – 2) | 1,442 (986 – 2,018) | 0.14 (0.12 – 0.18) | 14,934 (9,662 – 21,498) |
| 75% | 16 (14 – 19) | 44 (−3 – 97) | 2 (1 – 2) | 484 (−22 – 1,068) | 2 (2−3) | 319 (−20−695) | 0.22 (0.17−0.27) | 3,383 (−319 – 7,520) |
| 100% | 22 (19−25) | −33 (−69−9) | 2 (2−3) | −364 (−756 – 88) | 3 (3−3) | −243 (−501−31) | 0.29 (0.24−0.35) | Dominant |
| Intervention cost: $10 per child per year | ||||||||
| 50% | 11 (9−13) | 659 (524−815) | 1 (1−1) | 7,285 (5,812 – 9,027) | 2 (1−2) | 4,879 (3,874 – 6,012) | 0.15 (0.12−0.21) | 49,480 (37,759 – 63,970) |
| 75% | 16 (14−19) | 353 (262−457) | 2 (1−2) | 3,877 (2,887 – 5,029) | 2 (2−3) | 2,591 (2,919 – 3,335) | 0.22 (0.17−0.27) | 26,782 (19,342 – 35,487) |
| 100% | 22 (19−25) | 198 (129−276) | 2 (2−2) | 2,188 (1,428 – 3,047) | 3 (3−3) | 1,455 (981 – 2,032) | 0.29 (0.23 – 0.36) | 14,937 (9.278 – 21,100) |
(all costs are in US dollars for the year 2012).
DF = Dengue Fever; DHF = Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever; DALY = Disability-Adjusted Life Years; ICER = Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio.
a
Incremental health outcomes are presented per 1,000 children over one year.
b
Negative cost values indicate cost-savings.
c
Boldface font indicates scenarios that were cost-effective (ICER≤$16,440). Underlined entries in boldface font are scenarios in which the intervention was the dominant strategy (i.e. less costly and more effective than no intervention alternative).