Table 5.

Epidemic contextual sequential patterns

Minimal context	Epidemic associated sequential patterns	Support	C-specificity
Pre-epidemic (4-week period)	(Var_TX°(−2% to −10%), CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰) (CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰)	0.57	0.57
	(Var_UN (2–7%), CCi<1‰, BCCi<0,3‰)	0.67	0.52
	(CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰, Var_GLOT (−11% to −50%)) (CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰)	0.57	0.57
	(Var_TX°(−2% to −10%), CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰)	0.62	0.48
	(CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰) (Var_BCC>40%, CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰)	0.57	0.48
	(Var_UX (0.1–0.4%) CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰))	0.57	0.43
	(Var_UN>7%, CCi<1‰, CCi<1‰)	0.57	0.38
	(Var_BCC>40%, CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰) (CCi<1‰, BCCi<0.3‰)	0.57	0.38
Beginning of epidemic (4-week period)	(Var_BCC>40%) (BCCi (0.3–1.9‰))	0.76	0.56
	(BCCi (0.3–1.9‰)) (BCCi (0.3–1.9‰))	0.86	0.51
	(BCCi (0.3–1.9‰)) (Var_UX (0.1%; 0.4%))>	0.71	0.46
	(Var_BCC>40%) (RR (158–327 mm))	0.67	0.18
	(Var_BCC>40%) (Var_CC (0–33%)	0.81	0.16
	(Var_BCC>40%) (Var_UN (7–40%))	0.67	0.09
	(Var_BCC>40%) (UN (62–67%))	0.57	0.05
	(Var_GLOT>12%)	0.62	0.02
	(Var_BCC>40%) (Var_UX (0.1–0.4%))	0.62	0.01
	(UX<96%)	0.57	0.01
Epidemic peak (7-week period)	(BCC>8) (TX (30.3°; 31.2°), BCC>8)	0.6	0.25
	(BCCi (1.8‰; 4.3‰)) (BCCi (1.8‰; 4.3‰))	0.6	0.17
	(UN (62–67%)) (BCC>8)	0.65	0.10
	(Var_BCC (1–40%))	0.8	0.04
	(Var_GLOT>(3–12%)))	0.65	0.04
Descendant phase	(Var_BCC<−33%) (Var_UN (2–7%))	0.85	0.30
	(Var_BCC<−33%) (Var_TX (0%))	0.85	0.30
	(Var_BCC<−33%) (Var_BCC<−33%)	0.90	0.23
	(Var_CC (−4–0%))	0.70	0.21
	(Var_BCC<−33%) (Var_TX>2%)>	0.85	0.20

BCC, biologically confirmed case; CC, clinical case; GLOT, global brilliance; RR, cumulative rainfall; TX, maximum temperature; UN/UX, minimum and maximum relative humidity.