Table 1.

Competing nonlinear least-squares models for clade diversification, with AICc scores. (Parameters: linear a, b; logistic/Gompertz a, b and c; exponential y0, b; NULL intercept only. Parameter significance levels: *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001. Note that significance may be inflated owing to autocorrelation in the time series.)

model	par 1	par 2	par 3	AICc	ΔAICc	AICc weight	R2
Apterygota
logistic	17.087***	5.757***	0.053***	143.64	0.00	0.74	0.9139
Gompertz	17.363***	0.009	0.040***	145.70	2.06	0.26	0.9083
exponential	22.111***	104.115***	—	157.41	13.77	0.00	0.8593
linear	16.013***	0.057***	—	179.92	36.28	0.00	0.7217
NULL	7.000***	—	—	219.86	76.22	0.00	—
Palaeoptera
exponential	40.277***	307.667***	—	255.23	0.00	0.69	0.3097
lineara	35.998***	0.067**	—	257.78	2.55	0.19	0.2544
Gompertza	22040	6.497	2.82 × 10−4	260.26	5.02	0.06	0.2533
logistic	1405	−3.737	0.002	260.40	5.17	0.05	0.2500
NULL	25.364***	—	—	265.195	9.96	0.00	—
Polyneoptera
exponential	52.049***	496.706**	—	260.73	0.00	0.47	0.2817
linear	50.136***	0.073**	—	261.38	0.64	0.34	0.2675
logistica	169.5	−0.880	0.002	263.66	2.93	0.11	0.2707
Gompertza	6414	4.903	2.882 × 10−4	264.20	3.46	0.08	0.2588
NULL	38.52***	—	—	269.38	8.65	0.00	—
Paraneoptera
Gompertz	1210.72	2.147	0.997***	221.82	0.00	0.60	0.9647
exponential	149.643***	133.714***	—	223.93	2.10	0.21	0.9591
logistic	331.46	29.69	103.58***	224.06	2.24	0.19	0.9620
linear	124.714***	0.434***	—	236.49	14.67	0.00	0.9386
NULL	60.097***	—	—	320.72	98.90	0.00	—
Holometabola
Gompertz	745.8***	0.522**	0.993***	301.46	0.00	0.95	0.9739
logistic	519.148***	−95.47***	59.354***	307.41	5.95	0.05	0.9686
linear	411.201***	1.525***	—	324.40	22.93	0.00	0.9423
exponential	508.75***	116.8***	—	324.73	23.27	0.00	0.9417
NULL	176.44***	—	—	413.68	112.22	0.00	—

^aModel run terminated and output after 500 iterations due to non-convergence (see Material and methods for explanation).