Table 5.

Long-term career intention regarding academic work: UK medical graduates of 2005, 2009 and 2012 1 year after graduation by cohort year, gender, ethnic group, intercalated degree status, medical school region and first career choice

		Long-term career intention								Univariate analysis			Multivariate analysis
				Clinical academic		Clinical posts with some research		Clinical posts without research					Total		Clinical academic vs no research		Some research vs no research
Predictor	Group	N	Per cent	N	Per cent	N	Per cent	N	Per cent	df	χ2	p Value	Wald	p Value	Wald	p Value
Cohort	2005	117	4.5	1220	46.8	1271	48.7	2608	100	4	52.4	<0.001	2.6	0.11	19.5	<0.001
	2009	52	2.4	876	39.7	1277	57.9	2205	100				7.3	<0.01	0.7	0.41
	2012*	76	3.8	806	40.8	1093	55.3	1975					N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100
Gender	Male	151	6.1	1152	46.6	1167	47.2	2470	100	2	122.0	<0.001	43.4	<0.001	2.9	0.09
	Female*	94	2.2	1750	40.5	2474	57.3	4318	100				N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100
Ethnic group	White*	165	3.3	2001	39.8	2865	56.9	5031	100	4	87.2	<0.001	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Asian	62	4.8	654	51.1	563	44.0	1279	100				3.7	0.05	18.2	<0.001
	Other	18	3.8	247	51.7	213	44.6	478	100				0.1	0.70	7.1	<0.01
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100
Intercalated degree	Yes	157	5.6	1446	51.5	1204	42.9	2807	100	2	267.5	<0.001	37.2	<0.001	57.3	<0.001
	No*	88	2.2	1456	36.6	2437	61.2	3981	100				N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100
Medical school region	England, old schools*	88	3.0	1125	38.5	1711	58.5	2924	100	12	207.7	<0.001	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	England, new schools	6	1.3	175	38.7	271	60.0	452	100				1.1	0.30	5.2	<0.05
	London	65	4.2	782	50.2	711	45.6	1558	100				0.4	0.55	11.7	<0.01
	Oxbridge	33	8.1	241	59.5	131	32.3	405	100				20.3	<0.001	37.4	<0.001
	Scotland	37	4.0	397	42.7	496	53.3	930	100				2.4	0.12	4.0	<0.05
	Northern Ireland	4	2.0	56	27.7	142	70.3	202	100				0.8	0.37	5.6	<0.05
	Wales	12	3.8	126	39.7	179	56.5	317	100				2.1	0.14	1.9	0.16
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100
First career choice	Hospital Medical Specs*	73	4.8	745	49.2	695	45.9	1513	1000	6	638.1	<0.001	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Other hospital	89	3.8	1105	47.1	1154	49.1	2348	100				0.5	0.47	0.1	0.72
	General practice	15	0.9	375	21.4	1362	77.7	1752	100				45.2	<0.001	241.6	<0.001
	Surgery	68	5.8	677	57.6	430	36.6	1175	100				1.5	0.22	16.9	<0.001
	Total	245	3.6	2902	42.8	3641	53.6	6788	100

*indicates reference category. We discounted 687 respondents who said that they were ‘undecided’ about their long-term career intention: this left 7230 respondents. We also excluded cases where one or more predictors were missing, which reduced the sample size from 7230 to 6788. ‘Univariate’ denotes single factor χ² test for each predictor. ‘Multivariate’ denotes multinomial logistic regression result for each predictor with all other predictors in the model. Multivariate model fitting (likelihood ratio tests): year of graduation 46.7 on 4 df=11.7 per df; gender 44.7 on 2 df=22.4 per df; intercalated degree status 79.4 on 2 df=39.7 per df; career choice 497.4 on 6 df=82.9 per df; ethnicity 23.2 on 4 df=5.8 per df; medical school region 68.3 on 12 df=5.7 per df.