Table 2.
Prior estimates of divergence time (all priors uniformly distributed) and the mean, mode, and 95% HPD (highest posterior density) intervals
| Parameter | Prior | Mean | Mode | 95% HPD | R 2 | Bias | RMSE | Coverage | Factor 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 |
100,000-150,000 |
107,067 |
102,125 |
100,175-123,116 |
0.98 |
−0.01 |
0.07 |
95 |
1 |
| T2 |
60,000-100,000 |
74,916 |
74,691 |
63,350-93,892 |
0.97 |
0.03 |
0.13 |
97 |
1 |
| T3 |
60,000-100,000 |
63,210 |
61,152 |
60,200-67,718 |
0.98 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
100 |
1 |
| T4 |
40,000-60,000 |
49,280 |
42,637 |
40,574-58,075 |
1 |
0.01 |
0.06 |
100 |
1 |
| T5 |
20,000-40,000 |
36,700 |
38,394 |
30,475-39,581 |
0.91 |
0.03 |
0.09 |
92 |
1 |
| T6 | 10,000-20,000 | 15,828 | 17,798 | 11,280-19,500 | 0.99 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 100 | 1 |
Simulations were based on combined mtDNA and NRY sequences and the model of population history shown in Figure 1. Also shown are various statistics related to 1,000 pseudo-observed parameter estimations: R2 is the proportion of the variance in the parameters explained by the summary statistics; Bias indicates whether the parameter tends to be over-estimated (positive bias) or under-estimated (negative bias); RMSE (root mean square error) is a distance between the true and estimated values of the parameter.