Table 4.
Current and ancestral estimates of female effective population size (N f ) based on simulations of the HGDP mtDNA sequences
| Mean | Mode | 95% HPD | R 2 | Bias | RMSE | Coverage | Factor 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Current sizes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Africa |
11,505 |
11,841 |
11,052-11,951 |
0.93 |
−0.01 |
0.03 |
75 |
1 |
| Oceania |
3,509 |
3,936 |
3,053-3,952 |
0.98 |
−0.02 |
0.09 |
74 |
1 |
| Europe |
8,029 |
8,895 |
7,111-8,906 |
0.98 |
0.01 |
0.07 |
91 |
1 |
| Central Asia |
29,513 |
30,740 |
28,155-30,853 |
0.97 |
0 |
0.03 |
80 |
1 |
| East Asia |
100,111 |
108,787 |
91,032-109,030 |
0.97 |
0 |
0.06 |
71 |
1 |
| Americas |
1,802 |
2,030 |
1,531-2,070 |
0.97 |
0.04 |
0.10 |
78 |
1 |
|
Ancestral sizes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Africa |
57 |
10 |
5-113 |
0.67 |
1.96 |
1.88 |
82 |
1 |
| Out-of-Africa |
26 |
5 |
1-107 |
0.69 |
5.48 |
3.98 |
75 |
1 |
| Oceania |
52 |
13 |
4-112 |
0.65 |
2.09 |
2.21 |
90 |
1 |
| Europe |
118 |
23 |
10-253 |
0.88 |
3.09 |
2.77 |
73 |
1 |
| Central Asia |
1,663 |
2,863 |
372-2,956 |
0.91 |
0.19 |
0.41 |
97 |
1 |
| East Asia |
4,710 |
7,274 |
1,310-8,374 |
0.98 |
0.09 |
0.26 |
96 |
1 |
| Americas | 90 | 111 | 8-1,970 | 0.87 | 6.10 | 3.82 | 71 | 1 |
The simulations assumed the model of population history in Figure 1 and the mean divergence time estimates in Table 2. Simulations were carried out with a uniform prior distribution on Nf of 1 to 100,000 for each regional group. The statistics for the pseudo-observed values (R2, Bias, RMSE, Coverage, and Factor 2) are as defined in the legend to Table 2.