Table 3. Estimation of control measures' effectiveness through SEIR models for SAS and NPHEIRMS in three school outbreaks.
| Event | R0 before intervention | δ | N. of susceptible | SAS | NPHEIRMS | Time on SAS ahead of NPHEIRMS (day) | EPR of early measures through SAS (%) | ||||
| Signal | N. of infections | Attack rate (%) | Signal | N. of infections | Attack rate (%) | ||||||
| Varicella | 7.0 | 0.42 | 1283 | 2012/6/6 | 91 | 7.1 | 2012/6/6 | 91 | 7.1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 0.69 | 686 | 2012/6/6 | 88 | 12.8 | 2012/6/6 | 88 | 12.8 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 12.0 | 0.42 | 1283 | 2012/6/6 | 209 | 16.3 | 2012/6/6 | 209 | 16.3 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| 0.69 | 686 | 2012/6/6 | 194 | 28.3 | 2012/6/6 | 194 | 28.3 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Mumps | 3.8 | 0.55 | 1017 | 2013/4/22 | 51 | 5.0 | 2013/4/25 | 63 | 6.2 | 3 | 19.0 |
| 0.87 | 294 | 2013/4/22 | 50 | 17.0 | 2013/4/25 | 59 | 20.1 | 3 | 15.3 | ||
| 18.2 | 0.55 | 1017 | 2013/4/22 | 147 | 14.5 | 2013/4/25 | 263 | 25.9 | 3 | 44.1 | |
| 0.87 | 294 | 2013/4/22 | 123 | 41.8 | 2013/4/25 | 185 | 62.9 | 3 | 33.5 | ||
| ILI | 1.6 | 0.14 | 1081 | 2013/12/16 | 50 | 4.6 | 2013/12/20 | 72 | 6.7 | 4 | 30.6 |
| 0.69 | 390 | 2013/12/16 | 49 | 12.6 | 2013/12/20 | 69 | 17.7 | 4 | 29.0 | ||
| 3.0 | 0.14 | 1081 | 2013/12/16 | 58 | 5.4 | 2013/12/18 | 92 | 8.5 | 2 | 37.0 | |
| 0.69 | 390 | 2013/12/16 | 57 | 14.6 | 2013/12/18 | 87 | 22.3 | 2 | 34.5 | ||
SAS represents school absenteeism surveillance. NPHEIRMS is the National Public Health Emergency Information Reporting and Management Specification. EPR is the extra protective rate.