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. 2014 Sep 5;13:73. doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-13-73

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© Nevison; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014

This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Autism prevalence vs. birth year for California IDEA data, derived using two independent methods: 1) Constant-age tracking of 9 year-olds over 20 years of annual reports from 1991–2010 (red) and 2) Age-resolved snapshot from the most recent report in 2010 (blue). The slope of each curve over the same birth year interval, 1993–2001, is estimated with a least squares linear fit. The snapshot fit (grey) spans ages 9–17 in the 2010 report. The constant-age tracking fit spans report years 2002–2010. The snapshot:tracking slope ratio over the 1993–2001 birth year interval is 0.80.