Table 6.
Multivariate time-series models for ILI and SARI (ILI: November 2008–2009; n = 1·321 and SARI: November 2008–2009; n = 845)
| β | SE | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILI | |||
| ARIMA (1,1,3) – ARCH (2) model | |||
| AR1 | −0·968 | 0·024 | <0·001 |
| MA1 | 0·421 | 0·056 | <0·001 |
| MA2 | −0·638 | 0·046 | <0·001 |
| MA3 | −0·172 | 0·049 | <0·001 |
| A0 | 12·509 | 0·282 | <0·001 |
| A1 | 0·218 | 0·082 | 0·007 |
| A2 | 0·535 | 0·074 | <0·001 |
| Sunshine duration | −0·395 | 0·211 | 0·03 |
| AIC | 2264·2 | ||
| BIC | 2287·6 | ||
| Jarque–Bera test | <0·001 | ||
| Ljung–Box test | 0·973 | ||
| SARI | |||
| ARIMA (0,1,3) – ARCH (4) model | |||
| MA1 | −0·703 | 0·053 | <0·001 |
| MA2 | −0·176 | 0·059 | 0·003 |
| MA3 | 0·111 | 0·049 | 0·026 |
| A0 | 1·551 | 0·269 | <0·001 |
| A1 | 0·131 | 0·087 | 0·067 |
| A2 | 0·395 | 0·103 | <0·001 |
| A3 | 0·241 | 0·078 | <0·001 |
| A4 | 0·158 | 0·078 | 0·021 |
| Mean temperature | 0·399 | 0·209 | 0·025 |
| Sunshine duration | −0·392 | 0·160 | 0·007 |
| Relative humidity | −0·098 | 0·059 | 0·05 |
| Mean concentration of pollutants | −0·079 | 0·037 | 0·018 |
| AIC | 1857·2 | ||
| BIC | 1888·3 | ||
| Jarque–Bera test | 0·014 | ||
| Ljung–Box test | 0·949 | ||
ILI, influenza-like illness; SARI, severe acute respiratory infection; ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.