Table 3.
Summary of final ADR risk-prediction models
| Author | Significant variables in multivariate analysis | Variable coefficient | OR (CI) | Attributed score | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McElnay et al12 | Prescribed antidepressants | 1.7569 | 5.7942 (2.12–15.85) | None | Internal (204 patients) |
| Prescribed digoxin | 0.6884 | 1.9905 (1.05–2.33) | Accuracy 63.0% | ||
| Gastrointestinal problems | 0.7704 | 2.1606 (1.13–4.15) | Sensitivity 40.5% | ||
| Abnormal potassium level | 0.9455 | 2.5740 (1.35–4.91) | Specificity 69.0% | ||
| Thinks drugs were responsible | 1.4375 | 4.2103 (2.18–8.14) | |||
| −1.7861 | 0.1676 (0.07–0.42) | ||||
| Experiences angina | 0.8779 | 2.4057 (1.06–5.44) | |||
| Experiences COAD | −1.0997 (constant) | ||||
| Tangiisuran13 | Hyperlipidemia | 1.199 | 3.316 (1.811–6.072) | 1 | External (483 patients) |
| Number of medications ≥8 | 1.194 | 3.300 (1.927–5.651) | 1 | Sensitivity 80.0% | |
| Length of stay ≥12 days | 0.819 | 2.269 (1.345–3.826) | 1 | Specificity 55.0% | |
| Use of hypoglycemic agents | 0.645 | 1.906 (1.040–3.493) | 1 | AUROC 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.80) | |
| 0.437 | 1.548 (0.940–2.548) | 1 | |||
| High white blood cell count on admission | −3.628 (constant) | ||||
| Onder et al14 (O’Connor et al)22 | ≥4 comorbidities | Not reported | 1.31 (1.04–1.64) | 1 | External (483 patients) |
| Heart failure | 1.79 (1.39–2.30) | 1 | Sensitivity 68% | ||
| Liver disease | 1.36 (1.06–1.74) | 1 | Specificity 65% | ||
| Number of drugs ≤5 | 1 Reference | – | AUROC 0.70 (95% CI 0.63–0.78) | ||
| Number of drugs 5–7 | 1.9 (1.35–2.68) | 1 | External (513 patients) | ||
| Number of drugs ≥8 | 4.07 (2.93–5.65) | 4 | AUROC 0.623 (95% CI 0.570–0.676) | ||
| Previous ADR | 2.41 (1.79–3.23) | 2 | |||
| Renal failure | 1.21 (0.96–1.51) | 1 | |||
| Trivalle et al15 | Number of medications | Not reported | 1.9 (1.6–2.3) | – | Internal (bootstrap) |
| 0–6 | 2.5 (1.5–4.1) | 0 | AUROC 0.70 (95% CI 0.65–0.74) | ||
| 7–9 | 2.0 (1.1–1.37) | 6 | |||
| 10–12 | 12 | ||||
| ≥13 | 18 | ||||
| Antipsychotic treatment | 9 | ||||
| Recent anticoagulant | 7 | ||||
Abbreviations: ADR, adverse drug reaction; AUROC, area under the receiver operator curve; CI, confidence interval; COAD, chronic obstructive airways disease; OR, odds ratio.