Table 5.
Central estimates of harm reduction for ban on below cost selling and minimum unit price policies of 40p, 45p, and 50p per unit
| Policies | Year 1 health harm reductions | Year 10 health harm | Cumulative health harm | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths | Illness (000s) | Hospital admissions (000s) | QALYs saved (000s) | Deaths annually | Illness annually (000s) | Hospital admissions annually (000s) | 10 year cumulative discounted QALYs (000s) | 10 year cumulative healthcare costs (£m) | 10 year financial valuation of QALYs (£m) | |||
| England population (age ≥16) | ||||||||||||
| Below cost selling | –3 | –0.1 | –0.1 | 0.0 | –14 | –0.3 | –0.5 | 0.5 | –9.5 | 33.0 | ||
| Minimum unit price: | ||||||||||||
| 40p | –74 | –2.4 | –3.5 | 0.8 | –379 | –7.8 | –15.0 | 14.8 | –257.5 | 981.4 | ||
| 45p | –123 | –4.0 | –5.7 | 1.2 | –624 | –12.5 | –23.7 | 24.2 | –417.2 | 1591.1 | ||
| 50p | –192 | –6.2 | –8.7 | 1.9 | –960 | –18.7 | –35.1 | 37.1 | –634.2 | 2413.1 | ||
| Moderate drinkers | ||||||||||||
| Below cost selling | –1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | –1 | –0.1 | –0.1 | 0.1 | –2.4 | 8.2 | ||
| Minimum unit price: | ||||||||||||
| 40p | –10 | –0.4 | –0.5 | 0.2 | –7 | –0.6 | –0.8 | 2.5 | –30.3 | 148.2 | ||
| 45p | –17 | –0.7 | –0.9 | 0.2 | –11 | –1.0 | –1.4 | 4.1 | –49.5 | 241.5 | ||
| 50p | –27 | –1.2 | –1.4 | 0.4 | –19 | –1.7 | –2.4 | 6.6 | –82.0 | 388.3 | ||
| Hazardous drinkers | ||||||||||||
| Below cost selling | –1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | –3 | 0.0 | –0.1 | 0.1 | –1.5 | 5.7 | ||
| Minimum unit price: | ||||||||||||
| 40p | –10 | –0.4 | –0.5 | 0.2 | –23 | –0.5 | –0.8 | 2.0 | –28.2 | 113.8 | ||
| 45p | –21 | –0.8 | –1.0 | 0.3 | –60 | –1.2 | –1.8 | 3.9 | –58.4 | 227.1 | ||
| 50p | –39 | –1.5 | –1.8 | 0.5 | –129 | –2.5 | –3.8 | 7.1 | –110.4 | 417.7 | ||
| Harmful drinkers | ||||||||||||
| Below cost selling | –2 | –0.1 | –0.1 | 0.0 | –11 | –0.2 | –0.4 | 0.3 | –5.6 | 19.1 | ||
| Minimum unit price: | ||||||||||||
| 40p | –53 | –1.6 | –2.4 | 0.4 | –349 | –6.7 | –13.4 | 10.3 | –199.0 | 719.4 | ||
| 45p | –85 | –2.5 | –3.8 | 0.7 | –554 | –10.3 | –20.5 | 16.2 | –309.4 | 1122.4 | ||
| 50p | –125 | –3.6 | –5.4 | 1.0 | –812 | –14.5 | –29.0 | 23.4 | –441.8 | 1607.2 | ||
QALYs=quality adjusted life years.