Table 2. Validation of Gompertz-Predicted Median Life Expectancy by Risk Points.

	HRS Development Cohort		HRS Validation Cohort	ELSA Validation Cohort
PointScore	Gompertz-Predicted Median Life Expectancy,in years (95% CI), [50% PI]	Observed MedianSurvival, in years	Observed MedianSurvival, in years	Observed MedianSurvival, in years
0	35.4 (31.0–39.8) [28.5–42.5]	>10*	>10*	>8*
1	33.1 (29.9–36.2) [23.7–37.5]	>10*	>10*	>8*
2	30.1 (28.1–32.0) [22.0–35.6]	>10*	>10*	>8*
3	23.7 (22.4–24.9) [16.5–29.6]	>10*	>10*	>8*
4	21.1 (20.0–22.1) [14.1–26.7]	>10*	>10*	>8*
5	17.7 (16.8–18.5) [11.2–23.0]	>10*	>10*	>8*
6	14.3 (13.7–15.0) [8.4–19.2]	>10*	>10*	>8*
7	12.6 (12.0–13.2) [7.0–17.2]	>10*	>10*	>8*
8	10.3 (9.7–10.9) [5.6–14.9]	9.9	10.0	>8*
9	8.8 (8.2–9.3) [4.8–13.3]	8.3	8.9	>8*
10	7.3 (6.7–7.8) [3.8–11.4]	6.8	7.2	>8*
11	5.9 (5.3–6.4) [2.9–9.3]	5.4	5.0	7.4
12	5.3 (4.7–5.8) [2.6–8.8]	4.6	5.1	6.7
13	4.8 (4.1–5.4) [2.2–7.6]	4.0	3.8	6.5
≥14	3.4 (3.0–3.8) [1.7–6.2]	3.1	2.9	4.2
Harrell’s c-statistic		0.790	0.779	0.801

*Follow-up for HRS is limited to 10 years while the follow-up for ELSA is limited to 8 years.

CI is confidence interval.

PI is prediction interval.