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. 2014 Sep 30;9(9):e107572. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107572

Table 2. Drivers and related assumptions describing the four scenarios combining climatic and socio-economic alternatives (adapted from [61]).

Drivers Climate alternatives
“Drastic” “Intermittent”
Season of drought and occurrence Spring drought during four consecutive years Spring or summer drought every two years
Effects on vegetation Change in species composition. Development of species adapted to drought (eg. Festuca paniculata, Carex sempervirens) No change
Effects on biomass production Decrease by more than 50% Decrease by 15% during drought years
Effects on water quantity (springs) Decreased flow of all springs, even quenching of the less productive ones Decreased flow of the springs
Socio-economic alternatives
“Local” “International”
Consumption demand Local and high quality products Cheapest prices
Aim of agricultural subsidies To maintain both an agriculture with quality production and a high level of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. High subsidies but more restrictive in term of expected outcomes than in the “International” alternative. To maintain open landscapes and production of environmental services such as carbon sequestration. Lower subsidies than on the local alternative, but less restrictive. A minimal income is guaranteed to farmers
Subsidies 20% of CAP pillar 1 support: no minimum guaranteed; Agri-environmental measures (AEM): Bonus for biodiversity with commitment to results (e.g. maintain plant diversity): 210€/ha (maximum 10000€/farm) c).; Strengthening of eco-conditionality requirements for funding (e.g. manure control) 20% of CAP pillar 1 support: subsidies generally decoupled but minimum guaranteed (1 yearly minimum wage); Agri-environmental measures (AEM): Bonus for maintaining grasslands; Carbon credits: 76€/ha (maximum 76000€/farm)