Table 4. Classification accuracy when identifying US adolescents who go on to experiment with smoking and those who become established smokers. Included are the susceptibility, curiosity, and an Enhanced Susceptibility Index which combined the two.
Baseline | Sensitivity1 | Specificity2 | PPV3 |
---|---|---|---|
Experiment with smoking (328/878) | |||
Original Susceptibility Index | 37.2% | 82.2% | 55.5% |
Enhanced Susceptibility Index | 51.5% | 72.4% | 52.8% |
Established Smoking (97/878) | |||
Original Susceptibility Index | 40.2% | 76.8% | 17.7% |
Enhanced Susceptibility Index | 54.6% | 65.7% | 16.6% |
Sensitivity: Percent of young adult experimenters identified as “At Risk” at age 10-13.
Specificity: Percent of young adult never smokers identified as “committed never smokers” at age 10-13 years.
Positive Predictive Value: Percent identified as ‘At Risk’ who experimented