Table 4. Simulated effect of intervention combinations.
| Proportion reduction in all-age parasite prevalence, year 5 | Uncomplicated episodes averted per person | Hospitalizations averted (thousands) | Deaths averted | DALYs averted (thousands) | ||||||
| Mean | IQR | Mean | IQR | Mean | IQR | Mean | IQR | Mean | IQR | |
| Current strategy | ||||||||||
| LLIN 56%+IRS 70% | 0.96 | (0.95, 0.96) | 7.04 | (6.97, 7.10) | 3.78 | (3.74, 3.83) | 1.42 | (1.40, 1.44) | 71.48 | (70.77, 2.37) |
| Increase coverage | ||||||||||
| LLIN 80%+IRS 90% | 0.99 | (0.98, 0.99) | 7.43 | (7.40, 7.45) | 3.96 | (3.94, 3.97) | 1.52 | (1.51, 1.53) | 76.27 | (75.93, 6.75) |
| Add school-based IST | ||||||||||
| LLIN 56%+IRS 70%+IST 80% twice per term | 0.98 | (0.97, 0.98) | 7.16 | (7.08, 7.22) | 3.82 | (3.79, 3.87) | 1.46 | (1.45, 1.48) | 73.68 | (73.07, 4.47) |
| LLIN 80%+IRS 90%+IST 80% twice per term | 0.99 | (0.99, 0.99) | 7.46 | (7.44, 7.48) | 3.96 | (3.96, 3.98) | 1.54 | (1.54, 1.55) | 77.57 | (77.26, 8.16) |
| Change timing of IRS | ||||||||||
| LLIN 56%+IRS 70% April start | 0.97 | (0.96, 0.97) | 7.09 | (7.01, 7.15) | 3.80 | (3.76, 3.86) | 1.43 | (1.42, 1.45) | 71.85 | (71.27, 2.83) |
| LLIN 56%+IRS 70% May start | 0.95 | (0.95, 0.96) | 6.98 | (6.90, 7.05) | 3.75 | (3.71, 3.82) | 1.40 | (1.39, 1.42) | 70.48 | (69.81, 1.50) |
| LLIN 56%+IRS 70% June start | 0.96 | (0.96, 0.97) | 7.08 | (7.01, 7.13) | 3.80 | (3.77, 3.84) | 1.43 | (1.41, 1.44) | 71.79 | (71.09, 2.80) |
| Change timing and increase coverage of IRS | ||||||||||
| LLIN 56%+IRS 90% April start | 0.76 | (0.73, 0.78) | 6.12 | (5.85, 6.25) | 3.26 | (3.06, 3.45) | 1.21 | (1.14, 1.27) | 61.31 | (58.17, 4.18) |
| LLIN 56%+IRS 90% May start | 0.97 | (0.96, 0.97) | 7.07 | (7.01, 7.13) | 3.79 | (3.75, 3.84) | 1.43 | (1.41, 1.45) | 71.79 | (71.19, 2.88) |
| LLIN 56%+IRS 90% June start | 0.97 | (0.97, 0.98) | 7.16 | (7.09, 7.22) | 3.84 | (3.81, 3.88) | 1.45 | (1.43, 1.46) | 72.78 | (72.20, 3.63) |
| IRS alone, change coverage | ||||||||||
| IRS 70% | 0.53 | (0.50, 0.55) | 2.89 | (2.06, 3.33) | 1.66 | (1.35, 1.97) | 0.60 | (0.49, 0.74) | 30.33 | (25.56, 7.05) |
| IRS 90% | 0.66 | (0.63, 0.67) | 3.63 | (2.95, 3.99) | 2.10 | (1.86, 2.37) | 0.74 | (0.66, 0.85) | 37.62 | (33.56, 2.63) |
| LLINs alone | ||||||||||
| LLIN 56% | 0.95 | (0.95, 0.96) | 7.00 | (6.93, 7.05) | 3.76 | (3.72, 3.82) | 1.41 | (1.39, 1.43) | 70.86 | (70.11, 1.95) |
| LLIN 80% | 0.94 | (0.93, 0.94) | 7.15 | (7.08, 7.22) | 3.80 | (3.76, 3.86) | 1.44 | (1.42, 1.46) | 72.65 | (71.76, 3.68) |
| School-based IST alone | ||||||||||
| IST 40% once per term | 0.09 | (0.05, 0.16) | 0.28 | (−0.83, 1.05) | 0.16 | (−0.17, 0.63) | 0.07 | (−0.04, 0.26) | 3.40 | (−2.12, 12.75) |
| IST 40% twice per term | 0.14 | (0.11, 0.20) | 0.46 | (−0.66, 1.20) | 0.25 | (−0.08, 0.68) | 0.10 | (−0.001, 0.32) | 5.21 | (−0.33, 14.80) |
| IST 80% once per term | 0.16 | (0.13, 0.21) | 0.53 | (−0.59, 1.27) | 0.29 | (−0.05, 0.74) | 0.12 | (−0.01, 0.35) | 5.93 | (−0.84, 16.08) |
| IST 80% twice per term | 0.22 | (0.19, 0.27) | 0.78 | (−0.27, 1.46) | 0.42 | (0.08, 0.82) | 0.16 | (0.05, 0.36) | 8.14 | (2.34, 18.06) |
Compared to a scenario with no interventions outside the existing case management system, the mean and inter-quartile range of the impact of different intervention combinations ( Table 1 ) on epidemiological outcomes in a population of 100,000 individuals over a time period of five years*. Bold figures indicate mean results improved from the current strategy.
*Unless otherwise indicated.