Table 10.
Estimated cancer incidence in the period 2013–2050 and causes of increase.
| 2013 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated population | 85294388 (100%) | 88487396 (103.7%) | 96260017 (112.9%) | 103742157 (121.6%) | 137872522 (161.6%) |
| Number of cases#1 | 114985 | 122783 (106.8%) | 144255 (125.5%) | 168723 (146.7%) | 331169 (288.0%) |
| Increased cases from 2013#2 | 7798 (6.8%) | 29270 (25.5%) | 53738 (46.7%) | 216184 (188.0%) | |
| Increased cases due to population growth#3 | 4303 | 14783 | 24869 | 70880 | |
| Increased cases due to population structure change#4 | 3494 | 14487 | 28869 | 145304 | |
| % Increase due to population growth#5 | 55.20% | 50.50% | 46.28% | 32.79% |
N.B.
#1Number of expected cases depending on 2013 rates of incidence.
#2Number of increased cases from 2013 number of cases.
#3Number of increased cases (from 2013) that is attributed to increase in population number (population growth).
#4Number of increased cases (from 2013) that is attributed to change in population structure (aging of population) and not to population growth.
#5Percent of increased number of cases (from 2013) that can be attributed to population growth only (not due to change in population structure).