Table 3. Percentage change in the National Hospital Input Price Index, by expense category, 1970-81.
| Expense Category | Relative Weight 1977 | Historical Percentage Changes | Forecasted Percentage Changes a/ b/ | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1970 | 1971 | 1972 | 1973 | 1974 | 1975 | 1976 | 1977 | 1978 | 1979 | 1980 | 1981 | ||
| Total | 100.00 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Payroll Expenses and Employee Benefits | 58.91 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| Payroll Expenses (Wages and Salaries) | 51.69 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Employee Benefits | 7.22 | 32.8 | 31.5 | 19.1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 17.3 | 18.4 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.6 |
| Professional Fees | 4.98 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 |
| Medical | 4.46 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 |
| Other | 0.52 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| Capital | 6.02 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
| Depreciation | 4.01 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| Building & Fixed Equipment | 2.58 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| Movable Equipment | 1.43 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| Interest | 2.01 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 12.5 | -0.8 | -3.4 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 10.1 | -1.6 | 0.0 |
| Working Capital | 0.41 | 14.0 | -21.7 | -17.3 | 25.4 | 49.7 | -6.9 | -23.3 | -6.5 | 21.2 | 36.6 | -1.2 | 2.7 |
| Capital Debt | 1.60 | 15.6 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | -1.7 | -1.0 |
| Hospital Malpractice Insurance Premiums | 2.00 | 29.9 | 27.8 | 15.2 | 21.3 | 87.5 | 100.0 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Food | 3.13 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 17.9 | 14.6 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 7.5 |
| Purchases at Early Stages of Distribution | 1.57 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 22.6 | 15.4 | 6.8 | -2.5 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| Purchases at Later Stages of Distribution | 1.56 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| Fuel and Other Utilities | 2.42 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 28.4 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Fuel Oil and Coal | 0.94 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 15.3 | 58.4 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 10.7 |
| Electricity | 0.67 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 18.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 7.3 |
| Natural Gas | 0.50 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 19.8 | 16.6 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| Water and Sanitary Services | 0.31 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| Other | 22.54 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Drugs | 2.48 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 8.0 |
| Chemicals and Cleaning Preparations | 1.88 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 33.5 | 23.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 6.3 |
| Surgical and Medical Instruments and Appliances | 1.78 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics | 1.62 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 21.1 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 |
| Business Travel and Motor Freight | 1.51 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| Apparel and Textiles | 1.45 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 12.3 | -0.8 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 6.9 |
| Business Services | 4.12 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| All Other Miscellaneous Expenses | 7.70 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| Consumer Price Index, All Items, All Urban | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 7.7 | |
Data Resources, Inc., provided all forecasts presented here, except for “malpractice insurance premiums,” which was forecast by HEW. See text footnote number 4.
Historical employee compensation variables for 1970-78 are internal to the hospital industry:
Wages - average payroll expense per full-time equivalent community hospital worker (American Hospital Association)
Employee benefits - employee benefits per full-time equivalent community hospital worker (American Hospital Association)
Forecasted employee compensation variables for 1979-81 are external to the hospital industry:
Wages - average hourly earnings of service industry workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Employee benefits - supplements to wages and salaries per employee on nonagricultural payrolls (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics)
See technical note B for further information.