Table 9. Factors contributing to percent change in nursing home care expenditures as a share of gross national product (GNP): Selected years 1965-2040.

Year	Nursing home care expenditures
	Percent of GNP	Average annual percent change in percent of GNP	Change in factors related to demographic mix		Change in factors other than demographic mix			Change in real GNP per capita
			Utilization per day	Intensity per day	Utilization per day	Intensity per day	Deflated price
	Percent increase
1965	0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1970	0.5	9.5	2.2	—	6.9	−0.6	2.6	1.9
1975	0.6	5.7	2.0	—	3.1	1.5	0.6	1.3
1980	0.7	2.6	1.8	—	0.6	2.5	0.1	2.5
1985	0.8	2.9	1.8	—	−0.3	1.7	1.1	1.4
1990	0.9	2.8	2.0	—	0.5	1.8	0.5	1.9
1995	1.0	2.4	2.0	—	0.1	1.5	0.6	1.8
2000	1.2	2.4	1.8	—	0.1	1.5	0.6	1.6
	Projected percent change base d on demographics only
2005	1.2	−0.2	1.3	—	—	—	—	1.6
2010	1.1	−0.3	1.0	—	—	—	—	1.3
2015	1.1	−0.5	0.7	—	—	—	—	1.2
2020	1.1	−0.2	0.9	—	—	—	—	1.1
2025	1.1	0.6	1.7	—	—	—	—	1.1
2030	1.2	1.0	2.4	—	—	—	—	1.4
2035	1.3	1.0	2.5	—	—	—	—	1.5
2040	1.3	0.3	1.9	—	—	—	—	1.6
	Projected percent change allowing intensity to grow at rate of the GNP
2005	1.3	1.4	1.3	—	—	1.6	—	1.6
2010	1.3	1.0	1.0	—	—	1.3	—	1.3
2015	1.4	0.7	0.7	—	—	1.2	—	1.2
2020	1.4	0.9	0.9	—	—	1.1	—	1.1
2025	1.6	1.7	1.7	—	—	1.1	—	1.1
2030	1.8	2.5	2.4	—	—	1.4	—	1.4
2035	2.0	2.5	2.5	—	—	1.5	—	1.5
2040	2.2	1.9	1.9	—	—	1.6	—	1.6

NOTE: Change in expenditures as a percent of GNP equals the combined changes in demographic and nondemographic factors minus the change in real GNP per capita.

SOURCE: Health Care Financing Administration, Office of the Actuary: Data from the Division of National Cost Estimates.