Table 3. Percentage of Variance (R2) Explained by Selected Models: Validation Sample.
| Label | Prospective Models | Concurrent Models |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Percent | ||
| Demographic Model | ||
| Adjusted Average per Capita Cost (AAPCC) | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| DCG Models | ||
| Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Groups (PIPDCG) | 5.53 | 41.95 |
| All-Diagnoses Diagnostic Cost Groups (ADDCG) | 6.34 | 33.04 |
| HCC Models | ||
| Hierarchical Coexisting Conditions Model (HCC) | 8.08 | 40.74 |
| Hierarchical Coexisting Conditions and Procedures Model (HCCP) | 8.73 | 46.59 |
| Hierarchical Coexisting Conditions, Procedures, and Hospitalizations Model (HCCPH) | 9.01 | 54.74 |
NOTES: All models include 12 age-sex cells. The dependent variable for all models is annualized 1992 Medicare payments. Prospective models use diagnoses, procedures, and hospitalizations on 1991 claims whereas concurrent models use 1992 diagnoses, procedures, and hospitalizations.
SOURCE: 1991 and 1992 Medicare Claims.